Solar power generation is a rapidly growing renewable energy technology. Currently, two major industrialized applications dominate: solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal power generation. Solar PV offers modularity, ease of installation and maintenance, and flexibility, making it the most widely adopted solar technology. On the other hand, solar thermal power generation uses concentrated solar power systems to heat a medium, which is then used in traditional steam turbines to produce electricity. Over recent years, industrial demonstration projects for solar thermal power have started to increase.
In the last decade, global solar PV cell output has grown approximately sixfold, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 50%. In 2010, global solar PV cell output reached 16 million kilowatts, with China contributing 10 million kilowatts. Grid-connected PV power plants and building-integrated distributed grid-connected PV systems represent the primary ways PV is utilized. By 2010, the total installed capacity of PV power globally surpassed 40 million kilowatts. The leading markets were Germany, Spain, Japan, and Italy, with Germany adding 7 million kilowatts in 2010. As the scale, conversion efficiency, and process levels of solar PV power have improved, the entire industry chain’s costs have plummeted. The price of solar PV modules fell from $4.5 per watt in 2000 to below $1.5 in 2010, significantly boosting the economic viability of solar PV power generation.
Solar thermal power generation, also known as concentrating solar power (CSP), has yet to achieve large-scale development but is now entering commercial applications after extensive trials. Countries like the U.S., Spain, Germany, France, the UAE, and India have constructed or are building multiple CSP plants. By the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of grid-connected CSP plants worldwide reached 1.1 million kilowatts, with another 12 million kilowatts under construction.
By the end of 2007, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in China had reached 100,000 kilowatts (100 MW). Over 50 companies were involved in solar cell production, with a production capacity of 2.9 million kilowatts (2900 MW) and an annual output of 1188 MW, surpassing Japan and Europe. This marked the establishment of a complete industrial chain, including raw material production and PV system construction. Notably, polysilicon material production made significant strides, breaking the 1,000-ton-per-year barrier and alleviating bottlenecks in raw material supply, paving the way for the large-scale development of PV power generation in China. 2007 was a year of rapid growth for China's solar PV industry. Benefiting from the long-term benefits of the solar industry, the entire PV sector experienced an unprecedented investment boom. Solar PV power generation is poised to play a crucial role in the global energy mix in the coming decades, replacing conventional energy sources and becoming a cornerstone of the world's energy supply. By 2030, renewable energy is expected to constitute over 30% of the total energy structure, with solar PV accounting for more than 10% of global electricity supply. By 2040, renewables may cover over 50% of energy consumption, with solar PV contributing more than 20% of total electricity. By the end of the 21st century, renewables could account for over 80% of the energy structure, with solar providing more than 60%. These projections underscore the immense potential and strategic importance of the solar PV industry.
According to China’s "12th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development," by 2015, solar power installed capacity is targeted to reach 21 gigawatts (GW). By 2050, renewable energy installations are expected to account for 25% of the national total installed capacity, with PV contributing 5%. Over the next decade, China's solar installed capacity is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 25%.
Recently, the National Energy Administration released the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development," stating that by the end of 2015, solar power installed capacity should exceed 21 million kilowatts (21 GW), generating approximately 25 billion kWh annually.
Under the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan," new solar PV power station installations are projected to reach around 10 million kilowatts, while solar thermal power generation capacity is expected to reach 1 million kilowatts. Distributed PV systems are anticipated to reach about 10 million kilowatts. Assuming an average investment of 10,000 yuan per kilowatt for utility-scale PV plants and 15,000 yuan per kilowatt for distributed systems, the total investment requirement is estimated at around 250 billion yuan.
These plans reflect China's ambitious goals for renewable energy development, positioning solar power as a key pillar of its energy strategy.
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