Loose chemical prices move with demand

Crude oil prices in 2012 remained within a range, closely following seasonal trends. The market was influenced by both supply and demand dynamics, with crude oil showing clear seasonal patterns. As the year progressed, the relationship between price fluctuations and seasonal behavior became more evident. Supply outlook for 2013 suggests that OPEC’s spare capacity will likely remain above the 10-year average, while non-OPEC countries saw increased production, especially from the U.S. shale oil sector. Meanwhile, output in the North Sea declined, affecting global supply. Russia maintained stable production at around 10 million barrels per day, contributing to overall supply stability. With continued growth in non-OPEC output, the market is expected to stay well-supplied throughout the year. On the demand side, U.S. oil consumption showed some weakness in 2012, with annual average demand at 18.65 million barrels per day. Gasoline demand followed a strong seasonal pattern, peaking in August. In China, demand growth slowed due to structural shifts and economic slowdowns, but policy support helped stabilize the market. As the economy recovered, demand for oil products was expected to rebound. Crude oil prices are closely tied to seasonal trends. From 1983 to 2007, prices typically rose from March to September and fell from September to November, with a seasonal upturn in December. This reflects the influence of seasonal demand factors like summer driving and winter heating. With stable demand and adequate supply, investors should consider these seasonal patterns when making decisions. Looking ahead, North America’s growing shale oil production is set to reshape the global crude oil supply landscape. Demand in 2013 is expected to grow slightly, with the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and China continuing its upward trend. However, European demand remains weak due to ongoing debt issues. In the PTA market, 2012 was marked by oversupply and weak prices. Increased production capacity led to downward pressure on prices, with the market reaching a low point in June. Later in the year, new capacities were launched, leading to volatility. PX demand, which is heavily linked to PTA, remained strong due to limited supply and high prices. Polyester production faced overcapacity and weak demand, with significant capacity additions from 2011 to 2013. Despite this, demand for polyester products remained stable, and the market was expected to face challenges in the near term. Methanol prices were influenced by crude oil and natural gas costs, as well as seasonal demand changes. The industry faced overcapacity, but energy demand, particularly from coal-to-olefin technology, provided new growth opportunities. Methanol prices were expected to show seasonal fluctuations in 2013, with a range of 2,500–3,200 yuan per ton. Glass prices were expected to rise in the second quarter of 2013, driven by improved demand and lower soda ash costs. The real estate and automotive sectors remained key drivers, though they faced regulatory pressures. Overall, the glass market was seen as cautiously optimistic. PVC demand was expected to recover with housing market improvements and rising calcium carbide prices. However, overcapacity and low utilization rates posed challenges. PVC prices were projected to remain within a range of 6,200–7,500 yuan per ton, with better investment opportunities in the first half of 2013. Polyethylene production capacity continued to expand, putting pressure on prices. Despite this, strong downstream demand for packaging films supported growth. Prices were expected to fluctuate seasonally, with an overall range of 8,500–11,500 yuan per ton. Rubber prices showed a mixed trend in 2012, with supply increases and weak demand pressuring prices. Global supply remained ample, with major producers like Thailand and Indonesia maintaining strong output. Prices were expected to stay within a range of 18,000–26,000 yuan per ton in 2013, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances.