Loose chemical prices move with demand

Crude oil and seasonal trends in 2012 saw the market continue to trade within a range, closely following seasonal patterns. This trend was influenced by both supply and demand dynamics. Supply forecasts for 2013 indicated that OPEC's spare capacity would likely exceed the 10-year average again. Non-OPEC production, especially from the U.S., increased significantly due to shale oil growth, while North Sea output declined. Russia maintained stable production at around 10 million barrels per day, and non-OPEC countries were expected to sustain high output throughout 2013. On the demand side, U.S. oil consumption remained weak in 2012, averaging 18.65 million barrels per day. Gasoline demand followed a clear seasonal pattern, peaking in August and hitting its lowest point in January. Meanwhile, China’s demand for oil products grew slowly, contributing less to global non-OECD demand. However, as economic policies took effect, demand was expected to rebound. Crude oil prices exhibited strong seasonal behavior, typically rising from March to September and falling from September to November. The seasonal pattern of demand, particularly for heating and electricity, played a key role in price movements. Investors were advised to consider these trends when formulating strategies. Looking ahead, North America's shale oil boom was set to reshape global crude supply. Globally, demand showed a slight upward trend, with the U.S. economy recovering slowly and China showing signs of improvement. European demand, however, remained sluggish due to ongoing debt issues. PTA prices remained weak in 2012 due to overcapacity and weak demand. As new production capacities came online, the market experienced volatility. PX demand, primarily driven by PTA, remained strong, with limited capacity increases in 2013 leading to continued tightness in the market. Polyester faced challenges from overcapacity and weak demand. Despite this, the industry was expected to see some growth in specific segments like polyester filaments and bottle-level slicing. However, the overall market was likely to remain under pressure. Methanol prices were influenced by crude oil and natural gas costs, along with seasonal factors. Demand for methanol in energy applications, such as coal-to-olefins and methanol gasoline, was growing, though policy support was needed for full development. Glass production faced seasonal fluctuations, with demand linked to real estate and automotive sectors. While the market was cautious, some positive signs were expected in 2013, particularly in the second quarter. PVC demand was tied to housing and construction activity. With improved liquidity and stable demand, PVC prices were expected to recover. However, the industry still faced challenges from overcapacity and low profit margins. Polyethylene production was expanding rapidly, which could lead to increased competition and lower profit margins. Despite this, demand for packaging films was expected to drive growth in the sector. Rubber prices fluctuated throughout 2012, influenced by supply and demand factors. Global production remained strong, and prices were expected to remain under pressure in 2013. However, seasonal demand and policy support could provide some short-term stability. Overall, the outlook for 2013 suggested a mix of challenges and opportunities across various commodity markets, with seasonal patterns and macroeconomic factors playing a significant role in shaping price movements.