On December 27, Shanghai Aluminum experienced a mixed trading session, with the main 1303 contract closing at 15,345 yuan per ton, up by 40 yuan. The LME market was closed overnight, so no overnight price movement was recorded. Today, the Shanghai Alcoa futures edged higher, testing recent highs. Fundamentally, Chinese industrial companies continue to show strong profitability, while the U.S. fiscal cliff remains a major concern, increasing market uncertainty. Despite this, domestic spot prices have remained relatively stable, supporting limited upward momentum in the market. Looking ahead, Shanghai Aluminum is likely to trade within a range of 15,100 to 15,600 yuan per ton in the short term.
According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 638.5 billion yuan in November, marking a 22.8% year-on-year increase. This growth rate is the highest since October and continues to rise. From January to November, cumulative profits for these enterprises reached 4,666.5 billion yuan, up 3% compared to the same period last year. This marks the first time this year that cumulative profits have shown positive growth after a long period of stagnation.
In the U.S., market sentiment remains under pressure due to the looming fiscal cliff. With just five days left before the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts take effect, the chances of reaching a budget deal are diminishing. The U.S. Congress will resume negotiations on December 27, following the holiday break, but the outlook remains uncertain.
On the supply side, both global and domestic aluminum inventories remain elevated, which has kept spot prices weak. As of December 21, LME aluminum stocks rose by 5.3% to 5.32 million tons, hitting a record high. With sluggish demand and high inventory levels, some analysts are advising caution. Barclays recently recommended selling aluminum contracts, while Morgan Stanley highlighted that aluminum has the worst outlook among all tracked commodities, ranking at the bottom of its 21-commodity list. This suggests that the metal may face further downward pressure in the near term.Zinc Alloy,,Door Handle,Gold
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