On December 27, Shanghai Aluminum experienced a mixed trading session, with the main 1303 contract closing at 15,345 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The overnight LME market was closed, so there were no immediate global influences on the price movement. Today, the Shanghai Alcoa futures edged higher, testing recent resistance levels.
Fundamentally, Chinese industrial companies continue to show strong profitability, with November data revealing a 22.8% year-on-year increase in profits for enterprises above designated size. This marks the third consecutive month of rising growth, with cumulative profits for January to November reaching 4.6665 trillion yuan—a 3% increase compared to the same period last year. This positive trend is a welcome sign after months of sluggish performance.
On the other hand, U.S. markets remain under pressure due to the looming fiscal cliff. With just five days left before the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts kick in, the chances of a last-minute deal are diminishing. The U.S. Congress will reconvene on December 27, but negotiations are expected to be tense and delayed until after the holiday season.
Domestically, spot prices have remained relatively stable, though they haven’t kept pace with the rally in futures. Analysts expect Shanghai Aluminum to trade within a narrow range—between 15,100 and 15,600 yuan per ton—in the near term.
Looking at global supply conditions, both domestic and international aluminum inventories remain elevated. As of December 21, LME aluminum stocks hit a record high of 5.32 million tons, up 5.3% from the previous week. High inventory levels and weak demand have led some major banks to warn investors about the outlook for the metal. Barclays has advised selling aluminum contracts, while Morgan Stanley has ranked aluminum as the worst-performing commodity in its latest research, highlighting its bleak prospects among 21 tracked commodities.
With these factors in play, the aluminum market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and policy developments. Investors are advised to stay cautious and monitor both domestic and global signals closely.Aluminum Door Handle On Aluminum Plate
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