In May, China’s real estate sales continued to be hot, and developers’ enthusiasm once again rose again. Statistics from Centaline Property indicated that in May, the amount of land purchased by the top 10 leading domestic housing enterprises reached 16.2 billion yuan, a new monthly high during the year, and more than doubled from the previous month. As an important downstream of the steel market, the hot atmosphere of real estate can not ease the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market. The decline in the factory price of steel mills, the slow release of demand, coupled with the loosening of the raw material market, the domestic steel market prices fell passively. Although some steel mills have already announced blast furnace maintenance plans, most steel mills still fail to reach a consensus on the substantial reduction of production. The high production capacity will continue to suppress the rebound in market prices.

First, the market review This week, domestic building materials were strong and weak. Driven by the exploration atmosphere of the small factories in the north, the market price in some areas increased slightly in the beginning of the week, and stimulated the downstream purchases. As a result, the market transactions showed some improvement, prompting the rally to extend to the middle of the week; but after the price rose, The demand for replenishment gradually shrank. Eventually, under the influence of the fall of spirals and billets, the prices of building materials went back to a weak trend. The weekend market sentiment was once again heating up, and the second bottom appeared to have started again.

Second, the cost analysis narrowed the decline this week and rebounded in some regions. According to the Fubao cost model, as of June 6th, domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises have a profit margin of negative 420 yuan per ton for 20mm tertiary rebar, and a negative 25 yuan per ton for last weekend (negative 395 yuan per ton); 6.5 The profit margin of mm high line is negative 338 yuan/ton, which is a negative increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week (negative 333 yuan/ton). Although the profitability space continued to grow negatively, the margin has shrunk from last week. In the situation of weak demand, hard supply decline, and tighter funding, the short-term steel market is hard to change. However, considering the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, there will be only two working days next week, and the steel price will fall by a small margin. With regard to raw materials, steel mills are generally not optimistic about the market outlook, and the procurement is still cautious. Most of them are mainly small-batch make-up warehouses. The prices of raw materials continue to fall slightly in the later period. On the whole, it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in profitability next week.

Third, the analysis of changes in major cities inventories This week, the majority of the domestic building materials dominate the stock market to lighten up. According to statistics: Shanghai stocks of rebar 422,800 tons, an increase of 12.8%, a decrease of 1.11% last week; Guangzhou, 375,000 tons, a decrease of 6.25% from the previous week, a decrease of 0.50% last week; Beijing 491,700 tons, a decrease of 2.34%, on the chain Weeks decreased by 5.73%; Shanghai wire stocks were 130,000 tons, an increase of 20.48% from the previous week, an increase of 9.43% last week; Guangzhou was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 4.88% from last week, a decrease of 0.73% last week; Beijing was 54,900 tons, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous month. Decrease by 0.86% last week.

On the macro level, China's manufacturing PMI for May 2013 was 50.8, which was a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. Industry sources said that this result slightly exceeded market expectations, or gave birth to a "good starter" in June. The continuous loss of the steel market, with the relief of financial pressure at the beginning of the month, some of the market slightly probed up, end users have a small number of goods received, and thus the overall inventory of most of the lighten up; It is also known that China Iron and Steel Association in late May the key enterprises of crude steel Nissan 171.0 Tens of thousands of tons decreased by 1.8% from the end of the previous year; the national estimate was 2.154 million, down 1.4%. In May, the daily output was 2.144 million. The output of crude steel declined, but overall it remained high. Although some steel mills currently have the news of production reduction and maintenance, the scope has not been expanded, and the impact on the overall output is relatively limited. With rain and high temperatures constantly coming Insufficient demand, and it is expected that the market will continue to destock operations in the later period.

Fourth, ** analysis 1. Technical analysis From the daily chart point of view, the Japanese K-line this week before the rise and then suppression, the overall shock above the 3400 platform is mainly on Friday and closed down the Yang Cross Star. Short-term attention to 3400 platform support; trend indicator KDJ passivation; leading indicator MACD running in the green column interval.

From the hourly chart of the main contract, Snail currently operates in the blue short-term range, while the MACD green-column index magnifies, but the RSI indicator has stabilized slightly, and the hourly chart has remained stable and weak.

On the whole, the short-term spiral of the material expected to oscillate at a low level, running weakly, keeping an eye on the pressure 3430 and supporting 3400.

2. The market outlook for next week's snail market: Snail 1310 will run in the short-term 3380-3430 interval, focusing on the three key points of 3430, 3400 and 3380; the mid-term operation will be weak.

3. Suggestions for the next week's operation: The long-term trader's recommendation is: 1310 during the period, more than one short-term lighten up, the overall position is controlled within 3%, and the mid-term departure. Pay attention to daily ** operation suggestions.

The bearish trader suggested that: screw period 1310, short-term short-term bargain-hunting participation, above the 3400 platform can add empty positions, positions within 10% control; mid-term can continue to layout warehouse receipts. Pay attention to daily ** operation suggestions.

V. Trend forecasting and operation suggestions next week 1. Trend forecasting next week Judging from the major factors affecting the trend of the building materials market, short positions are still dominant next week: the NDRC stated that the urbanization reform policy will be implemented at the end of the year, and macro expectations are expected to decrease again. The steel mills have stepped up efforts to limit production and maintenance, but the overall limited production situation has "points" but does not extend to "face", and supply pressure is still hard to ease; raw materials return to decline, the pace of decline is obvious, and sales sentiment is under pressure The Dragon Boat Festival holiday soon, fewer working days, or fewer stocking operations, and more high-temperature, more rain, significantly slower the follow-up; so Fubao Building Materials Research Group expects the next week, the weak is difficult to change.

2. Operation Suggestions Completion of the library gradually ends, and the release of demand is weaker. Therefore, it is recommended that those who have less inventory should watch more and less, while those with large stocks should sell at rallies and control the risk of positions.