The growing trade dispute between China, the European Union and the United States seems to trigger an increase in the price of solar polysilicon, but according to IHS, this growth is unlikely to be good for the industry.
According to the latest IHS polysilicon price tracking report, China's upcoming anti-dumping tariff on imported polysilicon will definitely increase the price of polysilicon this summer, but market factors will limit the increase.
The report said that possible import tariffs will cause global solar polysilicon prices to rise from $16.50 per kilogram in May to $19.50 in June and July.
This increase represents a turning point in the polysilicon market, with average prices falling in the past seven months.
However, the report predicts that the increase is only 18%, lower than the 30% indicator, while 30% represents a major adjustment in the market, and the price will still be lower than the $20 mark per kilogram.
Glenn Gu, senior analyst at IHS Optoelectronics, said China may impose anti-dumping duties on imported polysilicon from the European Union, the United States and South Korea, with a tax rate ranging from 30 to 50%. However, factors such as stable long-term agreement pricing and efforts by buyers and sellers to evade tariffs will alleviate the impact of tariffs.
For example, Chinese battery manufacturers can reduce the impact of rising import prices by mixing low-end high-end silicon materials and reducing average costs. Producing high quality batteries requires high quality polysilicon from the European Union, the United States and South Korea.
In addition, long-term agreements between Chinese buyers and international suppliers lock prices down to a lower price, at least for a period of time, to guarantee the fulfillment of supply agreements.
The IHS report also pointed out that tariff avoidance was avoided by using imported wafers from outside China.
For Chinese midstream manufacturers, it is difficult to accept the spot market polysilicon price of US$20.5 per kilogram due to the ongoing cost pressure from downstream suppliers.
In addition, the report also predicts that the global overcapacity of solar polysilicon will continue to be maintained, and local prices will not be allowed to rise further, even if local production content protection measures are taken.
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