In 2011, the first half of the year ** rose in price under the influence of speculative funds; in the second half of the year, although demand was weak, commodity prices generally fell, and the market hit a new high. The inhibitory effect of no waning appeared and the price gradually fell back. Looking at various influencing factors, the overall situation in the domestic market in 2012 will be better than last year, and the price may exceed the 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark.
The reduction of tariffs on import costs reduces the supply gap in China's ** market, and foreign dependence exceeds 60%. In 2011, the number of imports decreased by approximately 10%, and domestic apparent consumption increased to approximately 13 million tons. From January 1, 2012, import tariffs will be reduced from 3% to 1%, and resources will increase as costs decline. The period of destocking in the domestic market has entered the end, and social inventory resources have replaced some of the import market share. With the passage of time, the amount of social inventory resources will gradually decrease, and China’s imports of resources will increase in the future. It is expected that imports will exceed 10 million tons in 2012.
Changes in the exchange rate will affect the unilateral appreciation of the market's exchange rate against the US dollar, or will continue into the first half of 2012. *** Appreciation against the US dollar is positive for ** imports, and imports in the first half of the year are expected to increase substantially. However, the probability of entering two-way volatility in the second half of the year has increased significantly *** Depreciation expectations are expected to begin in the second half of 2012. ** Imports are bad and fertilizer exports are positive.
New capacity changes to change the supply structure In 2011, China ** production capacity reached 6.8 million tons, actual output was around 4 million tons, and output increased by more than 10% from the previous year. Renewable oil production is expected to increase in 2012, such as CNPC Guangdong Jieyang 20 million tons/year large oil refining project, CNPC Chongqing 10 million tons/year large-scale oil refining project, Sinopec Nansha 15 million tons/year refining project, PetroChina and Russia in Tianjin It is planned to build a 10 million-ton/year oil refining project and Sinochem International Quanzhou 12 million tons/year oil refining project. According to comprehensive calculations, the production capacity of matched ** recovery units will exceed 1 million tons/year. In terms of natural gas removal, the Luojiazhai Natural Gas Purification Plant is expected to resume production in 2012. The designed ** recovery plant capacity will be 1.3 million tons/year, which will become the second largest ** production base after the Puguang Natural Gas Purification Plant. If the above-mentioned enterprises are successfully put into production in 2012, the domestic production capacity of ** is expected to exceed 9 million tons/year, and the actual output is expected to reach 4.5 million tons/year, and the external dependence rate will continue to decrease.
Consolidate and consolidate Sinopec's leading position In April 2011, Sinopec's general sales work started, and its 28 companies** products belonged to Sinopec's refining and sales companies for unified deployment and sales. Sinopec has a market share of nearly 20% in China's gambling market, and consolidated sales have consolidated its leading position in the Chinese market. With the continuous increase in import business, the break-in period for “buoy-up at the time of gains and support to fall at the time of decline†has basically ended. It is expected that the prices of phosphate fertilizers will skyrocket and steadily increase or steadily increase in 2012**. As the main tone, the medium to long-term market may perform better.
The growth of phosphate fertilizer production boosted the growth of consumption of phosphate fertilizer in 2011. Relevant data show that from January to December 2011, the output of phosphate fertilizer (recovery) was 14.624 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. It is expected that new equipment will be put into operation in 2012, and demand for ** will increase steadily. At present, China’s economic inflationary pressure is huge. Continue to increase investment in agricultural production and other policies to encourage agricultural development are expected to ensure fertilizer demand. Although the current supply of phosphate fertilizer is still oversupply, the expected rigid demand in the future is expected to support consumption.
* Chemical industry optimism In recent years, the development of specialty and fine chemical industries has been rapid, and infusible **, * urea, * sodium hydride, dimethyl sulfoxide and other high value-added products have become the key development direction of many resource-owned production enterprises. There are even a number of companies that use foreign resources to produce fine*chemical products. China's ** market for fine * chemical production ** market share continues to increase, according to statistics, there are currently more than 10% of the ** for the use of special** and fine * chemical production, and the proportion of maintaining rapid growth.
Relevant analysts believe that prices will begin to enter the market from the low-to-middle prices last year. Although the import tariffs were lowered, there was little impact on the operation of traders. Spring fertilizer is a new opportunity for rising prices, followed by peak fertilizer exports. With the same export tariffs on fertilizers, domestic prices may be pushed up to the peak. During the winter reserve fertilizer phase, prices will be reconsolidated. In addition, domestic ** price is a destabilizing factor in domestic prices. As the import volume is much larger than the domestic output, domestic ** prices have limited impact. The overall market situation this year will be better than last year.
The reduction of tariffs on import costs reduces the supply gap in China's ** market, and foreign dependence exceeds 60%. In 2011, the number of imports decreased by approximately 10%, and domestic apparent consumption increased to approximately 13 million tons. From January 1, 2012, import tariffs will be reduced from 3% to 1%, and resources will increase as costs decline. The period of destocking in the domestic market has entered the end, and social inventory resources have replaced some of the import market share. With the passage of time, the amount of social inventory resources will gradually decrease, and China’s imports of resources will increase in the future. It is expected that imports will exceed 10 million tons in 2012.
Changes in the exchange rate will affect the unilateral appreciation of the market's exchange rate against the US dollar, or will continue into the first half of 2012. *** Appreciation against the US dollar is positive for ** imports, and imports in the first half of the year are expected to increase substantially. However, the probability of entering two-way volatility in the second half of the year has increased significantly *** Depreciation expectations are expected to begin in the second half of 2012. ** Imports are bad and fertilizer exports are positive.
New capacity changes to change the supply structure In 2011, China ** production capacity reached 6.8 million tons, actual output was around 4 million tons, and output increased by more than 10% from the previous year. Renewable oil production is expected to increase in 2012, such as CNPC Guangdong Jieyang 20 million tons/year large oil refining project, CNPC Chongqing 10 million tons/year large-scale oil refining project, Sinopec Nansha 15 million tons/year refining project, PetroChina and Russia in Tianjin It is planned to build a 10 million-ton/year oil refining project and Sinochem International Quanzhou 12 million tons/year oil refining project. According to comprehensive calculations, the production capacity of matched ** recovery units will exceed 1 million tons/year. In terms of natural gas removal, the Luojiazhai Natural Gas Purification Plant is expected to resume production in 2012. The designed ** recovery plant capacity will be 1.3 million tons/year, which will become the second largest ** production base after the Puguang Natural Gas Purification Plant. If the above-mentioned enterprises are successfully put into production in 2012, the domestic production capacity of ** is expected to exceed 9 million tons/year, and the actual output is expected to reach 4.5 million tons/year, and the external dependence rate will continue to decrease.
Consolidate and consolidate Sinopec's leading position In April 2011, Sinopec's general sales work started, and its 28 companies** products belonged to Sinopec's refining and sales companies for unified deployment and sales. Sinopec has a market share of nearly 20% in China's gambling market, and consolidated sales have consolidated its leading position in the Chinese market. With the continuous increase in import business, the break-in period for “buoy-up at the time of gains and support to fall at the time of decline†has basically ended. It is expected that the prices of phosphate fertilizers will skyrocket and steadily increase or steadily increase in 2012**. As the main tone, the medium to long-term market may perform better.
The growth of phosphate fertilizer production boosted the growth of consumption of phosphate fertilizer in 2011. Relevant data show that from January to December 2011, the output of phosphate fertilizer (recovery) was 14.624 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. It is expected that new equipment will be put into operation in 2012, and demand for ** will increase steadily. At present, China’s economic inflationary pressure is huge. Continue to increase investment in agricultural production and other policies to encourage agricultural development are expected to ensure fertilizer demand. Although the current supply of phosphate fertilizer is still oversupply, the expected rigid demand in the future is expected to support consumption.
* Chemical industry optimism In recent years, the development of specialty and fine chemical industries has been rapid, and infusible **, * urea, * sodium hydride, dimethyl sulfoxide and other high value-added products have become the key development direction of many resource-owned production enterprises. There are even a number of companies that use foreign resources to produce fine*chemical products. China's ** market for fine * chemical production ** market share continues to increase, according to statistics, there are currently more than 10% of the ** for the use of special** and fine * chemical production, and the proportion of maintaining rapid growth.
Relevant analysts believe that prices will begin to enter the market from the low-to-middle prices last year. Although the import tariffs were lowered, there was little impact on the operation of traders. Spring fertilizer is a new opportunity for rising prices, followed by peak fertilizer exports. With the same export tariffs on fertilizers, domestic prices may be pushed up to the peak. During the winter reserve fertilizer phase, prices will be reconsolidated. In addition, domestic ** price is a destabilizing factor in domestic prices. As the import volume is much larger than the domestic output, domestic ** prices have limited impact. The overall market situation this year will be better than last year.
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