Starting in July, China's manufacturing managers' purchasing index first fell below 50, leading the world in bottoming out. Now the whole world is gambling on China, do you know? The unemployment rate of banks is only 4 times that in Hong Kong and 5 times that in the Mainland. This is a precursor to China's financial tsunami, which will happen in 2013.
According to the actual survey results of the Economic Observer, the apparel industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang still has power generation capacity. Do you know how many areas lack power today? Do you think the economy is good now, do you have insufficient power? No, it is because the power plant is not willing to generate electricity. The actual survey found that China's total installed capacity is 916.1 million kilowatts. At present, you guess what percentage of power generation, you guess. Only 40%, why? The economy is extremely depressed and there is no need for electricity. Why is there a shortage of electricity? Because the power plant does not want to generate electricity, the more power it generates, the more money it loses, so it does not generate electricity at all, resulting in a shortage of electricity in many areas, including Guizhou, Yunnan, and Shanxi. There is also iron ore. As of June 20, the backlog of iron ore in various ports in China has reached 98.9 million tons, which has exceeded 70.98 million tons during the financial tsunami. All these figures are figures of the manufacturing industry, and I have told my friends that our economy is already in depression.
A terrible 70%, manufacturing crisis?
This is a set of official data. He indicated that 70% of the 2010 GDP of the People's Republic of China is reinforced concrete, which is the "iron public base" you see, including airports, high-speed rail, high-speed and so on. Take the highway as an example, is it effective? Is it effective in itself? No benefit, why? After the expressway is built, can it create wealth by itself? No way. It must have its carrier to use it, so that it will be effective.
70% of our country's GDP is reinforced concrete. Governments at all levels are crazy about construction. Where does the money for construction come from? Where does the government pay for construction wages come from? How to import these raw materials? I tell you the answer, all comes from the taxation of the manufacturing industry, and the dollar foreign exchange created by the manufacturing industry. Therefore, 70% of the GDP of the former Soviet Union is a military industry, and it is not profitable. It has to rely on oil foreign exchange exports of 30 billion US dollars per year. 70% of China's GDP is reinforced concrete, which is still not profitable. Relying on China's manufacturing industry to provide tax and provide US dollar foreign exchange, so if you want to defeat the former Soviet Union, you must defeat the oil. If you want to defeat China, which one must be defeated first? manufacturing.
The manufacturing crisis stems from the lack of pricing power?
Let's see how the United States defeated China's manufacturing industry. In fact, the United States has already succeeded. However, the current policies are all against manufacturing, and the off-road manufacturing industry is that state-owned enterprises are better and private enterprises are still worse. Since the beginning of the war 30 years ago, the United States has fought under the slogan of international division of labor. What is international division of labor? That is what China only does? Manufacture! We have finally become a major manufacturing country. Under the slogan of international division of labor, we let other non-manufacturing links in manufacturing be done by Europe and America, right? Including one, product development and design; two, key spare parts; three, channel logistics communication, all handed over to Europe and America. This is a big problem, because whoever controls the rest of the manufacturing industry, and the three non-manufacturing links, who controls the pricing power of the manufacturing industry.
What is the result of a large manufacturing country without pricing power? Profits fell sharply. Take the iPhone as an example. For an iPhone, Apple controls the first link, product development and design, and the third link, channel logistics, so an iPhone creates a value of $ 360 for Apple. Then the second link, key spare parts, It is controlled by the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The key spare parts can create a value of $ 187. How about the manufacturing made in China, such as Foxconn, how much money can we make? 6 pieces of 5 gross 4 (referring to US dollars), one, that is to say, Apple controls the first and third channels, the value created is 60 times that of us. The United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan control the second channel, called key spare parts, which creates 30 times the value of us.
After we lost to the pricing power war, after the manufacturing power pricing war, we lost 90% of our profits.
Will China become the poorest country?
In China, the bubble is a precursor to a major crisis. Because an IPHONE4 is put into production in China, Chinese manufacturers can only get 6% of the profits, and more than half of the profits will be taken by the United States. In the second half of 2009, China's first manufacturing crisis broke out. Entrepreneurs withdrew funds to speculate in properties, stocks, furniture, and Pu'er tea, and a lot of bubbles followed. Following this, a large number of enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang closed down.
The ensuing three policy misunderstandings have led to China ’s over-taxation of taxes and fees, the unsustainability of corporate capital chains, and the significant increase in labor and land law costs, which have worsened the manufacturing situation. The reason is that, according to world data, the direct tax plus indirect tax paid by entrepreneurs last year accounted for 70% of the pre-tax profits of Chinese companies; all taxes paid by individuals are as high as 81.6% of the average income tax; the highest since the world has humans. Tax; second, in 2008, under the government ’s promotion, private SMEs received more than 30% of government credit support, and last year there was only a small part left. Therefore, after raising the deposit reserve interest rate for twelve consecutive times, private enterprises had to go Private lending has led to difficulties in the capital chain. The third is China ’s current land cost, which is less than one-tenth of the United States. On such expensive land in China, the property market price is bound to remain high.
Rising labor costs, the highest land costs in the world, and the highest legal costs in the world have led to the deterioration of manufacturing operations, capital, and exports across the board. In 2009, the United States launched an exchange rate war and a cost war against China by controlling the RMB exchange rate and the prices of imported raw materials, and launched an economic war against China. Just like the economic war waged against Japan at that time, Japan's small and medium-sized enterprises eventually closed down and fell into a huge financial vortex. Through this war, China will become the poorest country.
China's economy is in danger due to the two sides of ice and fire?
When consumption power declines, the government starts to stimulate domestic demand and increase consumption, so the property market, high-end luxury goods, and art markets are booming, leading to two evils: waste of resources and overcapacity, which in turn leads to three major crises: the first China debt crisis Led to the stock market crisis, the second inflation crisis, the third private enterprise crisis, the inflation crisis and the private enterprise crisis led to the real estate crisis, the stock market crisis and the inflation crisis led to the decline in wealth and consumption, and the private enterprise crisis caused the private enterprises to not invest, so they could only increase high consumption The market for high-end products is so hot that it has produced a bizarre scene of China's economic turmoil.
And stimulating consumption and consuming excess capacity will induce a greater economic crisis. In 2010, the government invested 28 trillion in input and output, but the tax revenue was only 8 trillion. Where did 20 trillion come from? It can only rely on printing money, squeezing private SMEs, increasing local government spending, and issuing national debt. Looking across the world's economic environment, the US debt crisis caused US stocks to plummet, the European debt crisis caused European stocks to plummet, and China's current stock market plunge shows that China's debt crisis is erupting. The issue of currency is generated, and the only way to solve the problem is to quickly tighten credit. Each regulation will cause a large number of private enterprises to close down and the manufacturing crisis. The real estate crisis that this tightening of credit may cause will lead to hyperinflation. The flow of bubbles into various fields eventually leads to the expansion of multiple bubbles, and the complete elimination of these bubbles will take decades or even longer.
Does n’t investment make money but make less money?
The current investment market is twofold, and the stock market is "stuck endlessly." The property market, antiques, and art markets are feverish again. It is best for enterprises and individuals to prepare for the winter. Those who live to this day should bemoan the misfortune of today. They used to follow the trend and invest in what they earned, but now they have entered the era of "high risk and low yield". Reliable, so do n’t make as much money as you want to make an investment today, if you want me to lose less. The risk of not investing is great, and the risk of investing is also great. This is a kind of helplessness. Some people say that investing in gold, some people say investing in silver, this is just speculation is not an investment, and the hot metal is only a short-term operation to make money, forward transactions are dangerous, unless the pricing power is returned.
Q1: How do you understand our furniture industry's transformation and upgrading in the current environment? If we want to transform, what should we do? Where to turn?
Lang Xianping: Ca n't change in the short term. The furniture industry is a very hard industry. Entrepreneurs are better.
Q2: In the international environment next year, if the export opportunities of our furniture industry continue to be bad, do you have any better suggestions for us?
Lang Xianping: Do you know what your crisis is? China ’s GDP accounts for only 27% of consumption, while exports account for about 30%. This is why it is very difficult for export-oriented companies to switch to domestic sales. It ’s not your sales strategy, but China ’s consumer market is only 27%. %, No. 1 in the world. The United States is 70%, and China is only 27%. This is how difficult it is to look back after the export has encountered difficulties.
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