This article is the release of the press conference of the China Machine Tool Industry Association during the JIMTOF2018 exhibition (November 3), and the executive vice president Mao Yufeng made a press release.
Dear guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning!
Welcome everyone to participate in this press conference, I would like to express my sincere gratitude on behalf of China Machine Tool Industry Association! This press conference will mainly introduce three aspects, the situation of China's machine tool consumption market, the operation of China's machine tool industry, and the preparations of CIMT2019 and CCMT2020.
In recent years, China's machine tool consumption market has shown a recovery growth trend due to China's economic recovery and new dynamism. Affected by this, the operation of China's machine tool industry and the import of related commodities also showed a significant growth trend. Overall, the machine tool tool consumer market and industry have gradually changed from the operational characteristics of “decreased total demand and rapid structural upgrade†before 2015 to “the total demand has stabilized and the structure has been rapidly upgradedâ€. This newly reflected operational feature will continue for a while. The following is a comprehensive analysis of the current situation and development expectations through the consolidation of China's economic macro data, market information and industry operational data.
I. China's machine tool consumption market situation
1. Recent macroeconomic conditions in China
Judging from the quarterly growth rate of China's GDP, the growth rate of GDP in each quarter in 2017 showed a “high before low†process, which was related to the implementation of policy ideas such as prevention and control of financial risks, leverage reduction and economic adjustment structure. Affected by the decline in investment growth in the second half of 2017, the GDP growth rate in the first half of 2018 showed a slight decline. The decline in the second quarter of this year was more obvious. Compared with the year-on-year growth of 6.9% in the second quarter of 2017, it decreased by 0.2. percentage point. On July 23, the Chinese government put forward targeted policy opinions on economic work in the second half of the year, determined to give full play to the role of fiscal and financial policies, supported the expansion of the domestic demand structure to promote the development of the real economy, and determined to promote the development of the shortcomings and promote the people's livelihood. Measures for effective investment. These policy measures involve a more active fiscal policy, a sound monetary policy should be tight and appropriate, expand the scale of financing guarantees for small and micro enterprises, resolutely clear out "zombie enterprises", stimulate social vitality, and promote stable investment in effective investment. It can be foreseen that China's GDP growth rate will rebound in the second half of the year, and the trend will remain stable.
From the perspective of GDP segmentation in the first half of the year, the tertiary industry still maintains a leading and expanding trend, followed by the secondary industry, and the expansion trend is also significant; in specific industries, industry and manufacturing contribute the most to GDP, followed by It is the service industry, the contribution of the real estate industry has declined, and the growth of the information software industry is very rapid, but the proportion is relatively low. Based on the above situation, in order to achieve steady economic growth in the second half of the year, investment in industry and manufacturing will increase, and consumer demand for machine tools will continue to rise.
From the growth rate of fixed asset investment, the trend of year-on-year growth continued to decline after March 2017, and the growth rate of equipment and tools purchase was even more significant, from the year-on-year growth of 10.5% in February 2017 to February 2018. The year-on-year growth was 2.3%, a decrease of 8.2 percentage points. Affected by this, the demand for China's machine tool and tool consumer market declined in the first half of 2018. After March 2018, although the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society still showed a downward trend, the growth rate of investment in the secondary industry and manufacturing industry showed a different degree of recovery. From July to August, the growth rate of equipment tool purchases has once again declined. It is estimated that it is mainly affected by the lag of investment transmission. It is expected that investment in the field of machine tool consumption will continue to increase in the second half of the year.
According to the industrial value-added data, since the growth rate of industrial added value has increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2017, the first half of 2018 has shown a downward trend of monthly fluctuations. This echoes the changes in the above investment data. From the China Manufacturing PMI Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin.com, we can see the structural problems of the slowdown in the first half of the year. From the third quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, the expansion trend of the PMI index of the National Bureau of Statistics decreased significantly, while the Caixin PMI index fluctuated in the weak expansion range, which was related to the decline in investment growth. From the end of the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter, the PMI index of the National Bureau of Statistics showed a significant rebound, but the Caixin PMI index is still in a critical state of weak expansion. Since the Caixin PMI index mainly reflects the trend of China's small and medium-sized enterprises, the differentiation of the above two PMI indices reflects the insufficient extent of the previous investment into the real economy. To this end, the Chinese government has proposed policy measures and work arrangements for stabilizing economic growth.
From the perspective of money supply data, the growth rate of cash (M0) related to household consumption and the real economy remained basically stable; affected by financial risks of prevention and control and the policy of falling leverage, the growth rate of M2 and M1 continued to decline, and the scale of social debt grew too fast. Get effective control. In addition, since the first quarter of 2018, the growth rate of M0 and M2 has been stable, but the growth rate of M1 has been significantly narrowed from July to August, and the short-term funding is relatively tight. Therefore, the State Council has determined that a sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate. A modest recovery in the growth rate of money supply is conducive to promoting consumption and stabilizing investment.
According to the data of industrial enterprises above designated size by the National Bureau of Statistics, the company's asset-liability ratio declined in 2017, from 56.2% at the beginning of the year to 55.5% at the end of the year. In the same period, the profit rate of the main business of the enterprise experienced a decline and then the industrial enterprise's leverage reduction task was steadily advanced. In the first half of 2018, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size has rebounded, and the profit margin of the main business has also increased. The investment and operation of enterprises have shown an expansion trend.
In summary, China's macroeconomic operation will show a stable trend in the second half of 2018, which will also promote the growth of demand for China's machine tool and tool consumer market.
 2. The latest changes in the machine tool market
The following is analyzing the trends in the second half of 2018 from the perspective of China's machine tool consumer market. The fundamental driving force for the consumption demand of machine tools is the expansion of the manufacturing industry. The changes in the output of related industrial products and the advancement of manufacturing technology indirectly affect the consumption demand of metal processing machines, cutting tools and abrasives. Through the correlation analysis and modeling of machine tool consumption related to the output data of major industrial products issued by the State Administration of Taxation, the consumption index of China's machine tool tools was formed based on the 2000 data. The index of the index system is divided into four categories: metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, cutting tools and abrasive tools. The secondary index can be subdivided into machining centers, lathes, grinding machines, heavy machine tools, presses, punching shears. Folding machine products and other product indices. Based on the data updated in June 2018, the index recently reflects the following changes in demand.
The demand for metal cutting machine tools is affected by the upgrading of demand structure and de-capacity. In recent years, the demand index has continued to decline. 2018 will be a low point in recent consumer demand. With the arrival of the in-service machine tool renewal cycle and the emergence of new kinetic energy, the demand index has shown a steady upward trend after 2019. In addition, due to the obvious upgrade of demand structure, the average price of metal cutting machine tools has increased significantly in the past decade. The rapid increase of the value of machine tools in the future will make up for the impact of the decline in demand on consumption. The consumption of metal cutting machine tools in China will show a steady growth trend.
Unlike metal cutting machines, metal forming machines are showing a steady increase. This is due to the close relationship between the user market and consumption of metal forming machine tools, and the continuous increase in the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth indirectly drives the growth of metal forming machine tools. Similar to metal cutting machine tools, as the value of machine tools increases, the growth rate of metal forming machine tools will become more significant.
The demand for cutting tools after 2018 is generally stable, which is closely related to the demand for metal cutting machine tools. At the same time, the improvement of cutting performance and the steady growth of processing volume are mutually offset. It is expected that the demand for cutting tools will be “stable total, structural upgrade†in the future. The trend of market competition will continue to increase.
Abrasives are accompanied by an increase in domestic manufacturing levels and demand for precision machining, especially the increase in the consumption of grinding machines. After 2018, the consumption will gradually increase. Due to the upgrading of the consumer demand structure, the supply structure of abrasives will also be upgraded.
On the other hand, the investment trend in the user field has the most direct reference significance for judging the future trends and hotspots of domestic machine tool consumption. The following is a compilation and analysis of the quarterly reports of the first half of 2018 of listed companies in the main user sectors of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets (including 282), involving automotive, aerospace and defense industries, ship and marine engineering, energy equipment, railways and rail transit, Engineering machinery, steel, auto parts, machine tools and other subdivisions. In the first half of 2018, the top three areas in terms of the purchase of fixed assets and intangible assets were: energy equipment (52.6 billion yuan, accounting for 27%) and automobiles (40.6 billion yuan, accounting for 21%). ), railway and rail transit (29.9 billion yuan, accounting for 15%). From the perspective of investment activity, automobile, steel, railway and rail transit, ship and ocean engineering are in the most active areas; auto parts, engineering machinery, machine tools, aerospace and defense industries are in a neutral range; investment in energy equipment Contraction state.
Second, China's machine tool industry operation
1. Overall situation of machine tool industry operation
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of China's metal processing machine tools in the first half of 2018 was about 13.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.5%. Among them, the output of metal cutting machine tools was about 7.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.6%; the output of metal forming machine tools was about 6 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.9%. From the above data, the Chinese machine tool consumption market showed a significant growth in the first half of 2018.
2. New features of industrial development
China's machine tool industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation and attack. Under the influence of various factors at home and abroad, the development of China's machine tool industry is showing new features.
The total volume has stabilized and the structure has been upgraded. In the future, China's machine tool industry will shift from a scale-oriented to a quality-effective development model. Under the premise of maintaining the overall stability of the industry, resources will be more inclined to the enterprise groups with higher operational efficiency, better operational quality, advanced product technology and greater development potential. The marketization mechanism has become the main means of arranging the above resources.
Innovation drive has become an engine of industrial transformation and upgrading. The factor-driven model will gradually retreat to a secondary position, and the innovation-driven mechanism will become the main driving force for industrial development. "Science and technology are the primary productive forces" will present new connotations and renew a new historical role.
Deepen reform and opening up and shape new competition and cooperation. Under the new situation, deepening the internal reform and opening up policy has positive significance for the development of the machine tool industry. The deep reform of state-owned enterprise reform, innovation system construction, investment and financing mode, taxation and distribution system will promote the coordinated development of domestic enterprises with different ownership and consolidate the foundation of industrial development. The open policy of optimizing the introduction of foreign capital structure, promoting fair competition, protecting intellectual property rights, strengthening international cooperation, and promoting market access to promote trade and investment equity will form a benign interaction between domestic and foreign industries.
Third, the expectation of the future
Considering the comprehensive impact of factors such as industrial operation, import and export trade and changes in the RMB exchange rate, it is expected that China's machine tool consumption market will grow in 2018. Among them, the output of machine tool tools maintained a small growth, the structural upgrade within the industry was further significant, and the import of machine tools showed a growing trend.
Fourth, CIMT2019 and CCMT2020
Let me brief you on the preparations for CIMT2019 and CCMT2020 sponsored by China Machine Tool Industry Association. Affected by the continuous improvement in the demand for China's machine tool and tool consumer market, the two machine tool tools sponsored by the China Machine Tool Industry Association has become increasingly influential. From the exhibition effect, exhibition scale, specialization level, international level and attractiveness, it has become a famous brand exhibition in the field of machine tools in China and even in international exhibitions. The 16th China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT2019) will be held at the China International Exhibition Center (New Hall) in Beijing on April 15-20, 2019. The exhibition is expected to have a total exhibition area of ​​140,000 square meters, including overseas. The exhibition area is 70,000 square meters. The theme of this year's exhibition is “Integration and Win-win Wisdom to Make the Futureâ€. This theme is in line with the development concepts and trends of the Chinese market, industry and international counterparts, and is in line with the current situation and responds to the hot spots of industrial development. China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association will continue to uphold the concept of building exhibitions for domestic and international economic and trade exchanges in the field of machine tools, and provide quality services to exhibitors and visitors. I believe that with the joint support of colleagues inside and outside the industry, CIMT2019 will definitely become a grand event in the machine tool industry.
China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association will also hold the "11th China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT2020)" at the Shanghai New International Expo Center on April 7-11, 2020, which is a sister exhibition of CIMT. With the opening up of China's machine tool consumer market, it has also benefited from Shanghai's unique position, and CCMT's internationalization and international influence have also been continuously improved. We believe that CCMT2020 will become another important display window in the field of machine tools in China.
Finally, I sincerely thank all the guests and friends for attending this press conference. Welcome to visit CIMT2019 and CCMT2020. You are also welcome to invest, work and visit in China. The China Machine Tool Industry Association will continue to help you in doing business in China. I wish you all a smooth and healthy life! Thank you!
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