After nearly 20 years of development, China's feed and aquaculture industry has entered a stage of rapid development, the demand for feed rigidity has increased, and the structure of feed products is facing adjustment. At the "Seventh International Oils and Fats Conference" held yesterday, industry participants who participated in the "2013 China Feed and Aquaculture Development Outlook" Forum said that the feed aquaculture industry has a natural development in the context of accelerated domestic urbanization. Advantages, but challenges and opportunities coexist. If the problems currently faced can be solved, the breeding industry may maintain rapid development. If the solution is not good, it will face a new round of industry reshuffle and retrogression.
The trend of higher feed prices will not change
Feng Dingyuan, a professor at South China Agricultural University, said at the forum that China will soon surpass the United States and become the world's largest feed producer and consumer. Last year, China's feed production increased by 11% compared with the previous year. At present, from this point of view, feed production will increase further this year, which may increase by 13%-14% compared with last year.
He believes that China's feed production will be higher and higher, mainly for the following reasons. First, in the past, meat and poultry were free-range, feed was made of agricultural by-products, or some scraps were used. Now there are no agricultural and sideline products, and must be fed. Raw materials and commercial feed have higher requirements; second, due to urbanization, the demand for meat in the residents has increased, and the demand for commercialized feed has become stronger. According to the current situation, China's feed production will continue to grow in the next 15-20 years, and production costs will also be higher and higher. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, the trend of higher prices will not change.
"With the improvement of domestic living standards, we are also optimistic about the future consumption of feed, this part of the consumption is growing rigidly every year." Li Xiaoyue, director of the Asian Department of Futong Stone Group, also said that due to rural urbanization Trends, the future consumption theme will shift from urban to rural areas, and rural areas are the mainstay of future protein consumption.
Talking about the supply and demand of soybean meal this year, Haida Group (15.63, -0.24, -1.51%) General Manager of Dahe Feed Co., Ltd. Gu Zhong said that the current domestic soybean meal supply has increased a lot compared with last year, and the import volume increased by 27 million tons last year. At present, the most important problem this year is that there are more full-price materials, and the domestic pig stocks are higher, which is related to the substantial increase in pig breeding investment. However, the situation of poultry feeding is not very good, and may have entered the trough of the stockpiles. At present, the growth of national reserve meat is still relatively large. On the whole, the demand for soybean meal has increased compared with last year.
Feed industry structure faces adjustment
Feng Dingyuan believes that with the decline in the price of soybean meal, feed companies will increase the proportion of soy meal in the formula. Because the domestic feed formula technology is not very high, most companies are not sensitive enough to the changes in the price of the main feed ingredients. Although there are so-called minimum cost formulas when formulating, the proportion of soybean meal is basically artificially set. This ratio is often not reasonable enough. When the price of soybean meal falls, the usage rate will increase, and the feed technicians will not consider the feed nutrition and price comprehensively. If a savvy feed company is well caught, it may reduce costs, and vice versa is more of a blind act.
With the increase in the prices of bulk raw materials and the changes in the culture structure in recent years, the market share of premixes and concentrates will gradually shrink, and the market share of full-price materials will gradually increase. Feng Dingyuan said that China's feed production increase is undoubted, but in terms of proportion, premixes and concentrates are definitely aimed at backward production capacity, and concentrated materials and premixes are rarely used in Guangdong. In the future, the feed output of China will increase, and the structure will also change. The proportion of industrialized production full-price materials will further increase, and the proportion of pig feed will also increase greatly.
At the same time as the feed structure changes, the structure of feed production enterprises is also facing adjustment. For many years, small and medium-sized feed enterprises have basically no research and development strength, and their products are relatively simple. They can only use the "corn + soybean meal + fishmeal" formula mode. The feed formula costs are high, the cost transmission ability is poor, and the feed quality and safety level is also different from that of large enterprises. Large-scale feed enterprises rely on the advantages of formula technology and industrial chain to enhance their competitiveness and further widen the gap with SMEs. According to the report of China Corn Network, many small feed enterprises will be eliminated in the future. The feed market will be a competition between large private enterprises and large multinational enterprises. The share of multinational groups in China's feed industry will further increase. The influence of its related industries will also increase.
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