Domestic coal price "turns around" and the international coal price "heads up"

At present, the capacity of the entire coal industry shows a situation of loose supply. At the same time, the high inventory of power plants makes the demand for coal continue to slump, and the number of anchorage ships in the ports keeps renewing the minimum value. The domestic thermal coal prices have turned down again.

Traders have “flighted” that coal price frustration The latest phase of the Bohai Steam Coal Price Index closed at RMB 638/ton, down RMB 2/ton from the previous period. From the beginning of November to the current 6 weeks, the ring The comprehensive average price of thermal coal in the 5500 kcal market in the Bohai Sea has decreased by RMB 5/t from the recent highs at the end of October.

At present, domestic thermal power generation and coal consumption have improved, and the level of coal inventory of major power companies has declined. However, the domestic coal demand situation in the coastal areas in recent days is still difficult to be optimistic, mainly in Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian. The number of ships waiting for loading coal at the port anchorages remained at a relatively low level, among which the anchoring ships at the Qinhuangdao port fell below the level of 60 ships, reaching a minimum level of 49 ships at the lowest level, refreshing the lowest level this year, and even lower than this year. In July, when the price of ships fell sharply during the period of sluggish demand, the supply and demand of coal in the Bohai Rim region became less active, and the price of thermal coal in the market was unable to withstand heavy pressure and there was a downward trend.

From the end of the year to the end of the year, many coal traders who were eager to complete their sales tasks and clean up their stockpiles underwent a series of compensation sales in the current difficult sales situation. This also resulted in the “dilemma” of the coal market in the Bohai Rim region being broken up. Coal prices fell again.

The rebound in international coal prices rebounded sharply for five weeks from the beginning of November. The international three major coal price indices for coal ports have seen a significant increase. The Newcastle Port Index rose from 81 to 95 dollars, Richard Port of South Africa rose from 79 to 92 dollars, and the European ARA Port Index also returned more than 90 dollars.

The thermal coal prices in Australia and South Africa rose by an average of 15% in the most recent month. Indonesian coal, which is the main import source of coal in China, has not grown significantly.

Analysts pointed out that the increase in coal prices was due to the stimulating demand for purchases in the new year. At present, Japan and Australia are negotiating prices in the first quarter of 2013. The number of thermal coal tenders in Japan and South Korea has increased, and India has begun to increase its access to the rainy season and the west coast. All of these have driven demand to pick up.

Australia's large increase in coking coal exports in November shows that demand has indeed recovered. Due to the restocking of steel mills in the Asia-Pacific region, the demand for coking coal has risen sharply, which has driven the recovery of coking coal exports in Australia. In November, the export volume of coking coal in Newcastle Port was 1.6 million tons, a 43.5% increase over the previous period.

Another coal export channel in Australia reached Bolin Coal Terminal. In November, the coal export volume also showed a sharp upward trend, which increased to 5.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and reached a record high in the past two years. The increase in the import demand for coking coal in China is the main reason for the increase in the export volume of coal at the Daborin Terminal.

Based on the above, it can be concluded that under the premise that the overall economic trend is uncertain, the sharp rebound in international coal prices is mainly driven by the paper market and the new year's purchase demand.

However, judging from the current situation, the international coal market demand has not rebounded sharply, and the lack of long-term support for the rise in international coal prices, and the current global economy has been dragged by factors such as the US “fiscal cliff” and the weak European economy, and the short-term situation is still not optimistic. The international bulk commodity market is in a clear trend. The support for international coal price increases is weak, and there is still uncertainty in the future trend.

Comprehensive analysis believes that the day-to-day coal consumption data of power plants will rise seasonally, power plants and ports will still be in a relatively high inventory stage, coal supply will remain adequate, and thermal coal prices will remain relatively difficult to rise.

Overcapacity demand reduces sea freight rates to fall. According to news on December 12, the dry bulk freight index of the Baltic Trade Exchange declined on Wednesday, continuing the previous day's decline. Due to the decline in the Capesize rate, the Baltic Dry Index fell by 8.22% to 826 points, the largest percentage drop this year. The index measures the transportation costs of iron ore, cement, grain, coal, and fertilizers. The Baltic Shipping Index fell 12.47% to 1446, the largest drop this year. Capesize vessels usually carry 150,000 tons of cargo and the cargo is mainly iron ore and coal.

According to the analysis, due to the continued growth in the number of vessels, especially the iron ore trade, which is affected by the slowdown in China's economic growth, it is expected that the market will not stabilize or improve in the near future, and the price of iron ore will rise to its highest level since July. Chinese steel producers continue to increase iron ore stockpiles.

The current domestic demand for downstream coal has also remained depressed, and the price of coal shipping has fallen. The seaborne coal freight index issued by the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Market shows that the domestic maritime coal freight rates continue to maintain a slight concussion. Compared to December 4th and December 4th, the average freight rate of coal from 40,000 to 50,000 tons on the Qinhuangdao-Shanghai route decreased by 0.4 yuan/tonne to 26.0 yuan/tonne; the ship from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou was 50,000 to 60,000 tons. The average freight rate of coal rose by RMB 0.3/tonne to RMB 37.1/tonne; the average freight rate of coal from 20,000 to 30,000 tons on the Qinhuangdao-Zhangjiagang route dropped by RMB 0.6/tonne to RMB 32.6/tonne.