It is getting closer and closer to the time when the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the maximum retail price of refined oil.
Although there is news that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) may start the price adjustment action as soon as possible, many insiders believe that the time period for real price adjustment should be looser, around July 15. However, the social wholesale market is already eager to move, and this week has begun to actively adjust prices downward.
It is reported that the basis for price adjustment today is from the data of the July 7th of CBI. The agency made statistics on the 22 working-day average prices of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta, and obtained a volatility of -4.08%. As long as the volatility reaches 4%, the country can adjust the price of refined oil.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Liu Feng told the "First Financial Daily" that Zhuo Chuang Information's data is volatility -3.9%. Liu Bo, a researcher at Guojin Securities, also found that the average price change rate of crude oil in the three places is only -3.4%.
An insider of Shanghai Peiyu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Peiyu Petrochemicalâ€), who is engaged in wholesale business, told reporters that the credibility of the two-day price adjustment is not high, but the price of refined oil is still very high before July 15 possible.
Hongyuan Securities researcher Chai Xihu said that the change in volatility is not the only criterion. It should also be judged by combining the current price index, economic situation and the overall profit and loss situation of refining within the previous period of the two major oil giants.
In addition to observing the volatility, Chai Xihu will also pay attention to the trend of international crude oil futures prices every day. "The price of crude oil futures has risen again in the past few days. Unless the futures price continues to stabilize or even fall for one week, it is even more difficult to lower the price of gasoline and diesel."
On July 7, New York's light sweet crude oil August futures contract closed up $2.09 to $74.07 a barrel, ending six consecutive yin; while the current Brent crude futures also closed up $2.06 to 73.51 per barrel. Dollar.
Wholesalers first drop 300 yuan / ton
The price adjustment has not moved and the market is ahead of schedule.
An insider of Pei Petrochemical revealed that many wholesalers began to clean up the inventory oil this week.
The person in charge of a joint venture refueling company of CNPC said that in recent days, Shanghai social wholesalers have sold No. 93 gasoline at a price of 7450-7500 yuan per ton, which is 7750 yuan/ton than the main units of PetroChina and Sinopec. It should be about 300 yuan / ton lower.
The person in charge said: "Social wholesalers cut their prices sharply before the NDRC adjusts prices. It is a customary sales strategy. It can attract more customers and help to withdraw cash as soon as possible. The difference of 300 yuan may be the market judgment that the government will adjust the price soon. Interval."
The above-mentioned person of Pei Petrochemical also said that the last round of price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission (220-230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel on June 1) was not adjusted. If the oil price is lowered again, the last price difference should be made up. At the same time, it should be slightly reduced, and the range is expected to be between 200 yuan and 250 yuan.
Compared with the large-scale dumping of social wholesalers, PetroChina and Sinopec should be cautious. The reporter learned from PetroChina that the company only slightly reduced prices in Ningxia and Chongqing, and prices in other regions remained firm.
The industry analyzed that the government will not cut prices significantly, and it is also related to the price of wholesale crude oil that PetroChina and Sinopec received in June. If the imported crude oil is not too low, the cost of steam and diesel processing of the two oil companies will also be high. They will also communicate with relevant departments, and do not make too much downward adjustments on domestic gasoline and diesel prices, otherwise it will affect the profitability of enterprises.
If a petrochemical company makes a big loss, it is not conducive to protecting the domestic demand for gasoline and diesel.
Mr. Yang, the head of a private gas station in Shanghai, told the newspaper yesterday that he did not receive any information on price adjustment in recent days. "After June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the price of gasoline and diesel, we hang out the retail price of 93 gasoline, 97 gasoline 6.3 yuan / liter, 6.9 yuan / liter, which is cheaper than the national maximum retail price stipulated by the state. 0.38 yuan / liter, 0.21 yuan / liter."
Although there is news that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) may start the price adjustment action as soon as possible, many insiders believe that the time period for real price adjustment should be looser, around July 15. However, the social wholesale market is already eager to move, and this week has begun to actively adjust prices downward.
It is reported that the basis for price adjustment today is from the data of the July 7th of CBI. The agency made statistics on the 22 working-day average prices of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta, and obtained a volatility of -4.08%. As long as the volatility reaches 4%, the country can adjust the price of refined oil.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Liu Feng told the "First Financial Daily" that Zhuo Chuang Information's data is volatility -3.9%. Liu Bo, a researcher at Guojin Securities, also found that the average price change rate of crude oil in the three places is only -3.4%.
An insider of Shanghai Peiyu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Peiyu Petrochemicalâ€), who is engaged in wholesale business, told reporters that the credibility of the two-day price adjustment is not high, but the price of refined oil is still very high before July 15 possible.
Hongyuan Securities researcher Chai Xihu said that the change in volatility is not the only criterion. It should also be judged by combining the current price index, economic situation and the overall profit and loss situation of refining within the previous period of the two major oil giants.
In addition to observing the volatility, Chai Xihu will also pay attention to the trend of international crude oil futures prices every day. "The price of crude oil futures has risen again in the past few days. Unless the futures price continues to stabilize or even fall for one week, it is even more difficult to lower the price of gasoline and diesel."
On July 7, New York's light sweet crude oil August futures contract closed up $2.09 to $74.07 a barrel, ending six consecutive yin; while the current Brent crude futures also closed up $2.06 to 73.51 per barrel. Dollar.
Wholesalers first drop 300 yuan / ton
The price adjustment has not moved and the market is ahead of schedule.
An insider of Pei Petrochemical revealed that many wholesalers began to clean up the inventory oil this week.
The person in charge of a joint venture refueling company of CNPC said that in recent days, Shanghai social wholesalers have sold No. 93 gasoline at a price of 7450-7500 yuan per ton, which is 7750 yuan/ton than the main units of PetroChina and Sinopec. It should be about 300 yuan / ton lower.
The person in charge said: "Social wholesalers cut their prices sharply before the NDRC adjusts prices. It is a customary sales strategy. It can attract more customers and help to withdraw cash as soon as possible. The difference of 300 yuan may be the market judgment that the government will adjust the price soon. Interval."
The above-mentioned person of Pei Petrochemical also said that the last round of price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission (220-230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel on June 1) was not adjusted. If the oil price is lowered again, the last price difference should be made up. At the same time, it should be slightly reduced, and the range is expected to be between 200 yuan and 250 yuan.
Compared with the large-scale dumping of social wholesalers, PetroChina and Sinopec should be cautious. The reporter learned from PetroChina that the company only slightly reduced prices in Ningxia and Chongqing, and prices in other regions remained firm.
The industry analyzed that the government will not cut prices significantly, and it is also related to the price of wholesale crude oil that PetroChina and Sinopec received in June. If the imported crude oil is not too low, the cost of steam and diesel processing of the two oil companies will also be high. They will also communicate with relevant departments, and do not make too much downward adjustments on domestic gasoline and diesel prices, otherwise it will affect the profitability of enterprises.
If a petrochemical company makes a big loss, it is not conducive to protecting the domestic demand for gasoline and diesel.
Mr. Yang, the head of a private gas station in Shanghai, told the newspaper yesterday that he did not receive any information on price adjustment in recent days. "After June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the price of gasoline and diesel, we hang out the retail price of 93 gasoline, 97 gasoline 6.3 yuan / liter, 6.9 yuan / liter, which is cheaper than the national maximum retail price stipulated by the state. 0.38 yuan / liter, 0.21 yuan / liter."
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