From the perspective of the machine tool industry industry chain, the automobile, machinery manufacturing, military and other industries are the main downstream industries of the machine tool industry. Among them, automobiles are the most important industries, accounting for about 45% of the downstream of the machine tool industry. However, the recovery of the downstream industry does not seem to spread to the machine tool industry. In 2009, the machine tool industry still experienced negative profit growth. Some securities analysts believe that this situation will change in the fourth quarter.
In the growth period
The global machine tool industry is growing rapidly. From 2005 to 2008, the global machine tool industry grew at a rate of more than 10%, much higher than the growth rate of the global economy during the same period. In 2008, the total output value of the global machine tool industry exceeded $80 billion. From the perspective of production, Japan, Germany, China, and Italy are the major producers of the machine tool industry: accounting for around 65% of the world. From the point of view of consumption, China, Germany, Japan, the United States, Italy, etc., in 2008, China's machine tool consumption reached 19.44 billion US dollars, maintaining the position of the world's first machine tool consumer country for seven consecutive years.
China's machine tool industry has an average annual growth rate of 26% from 2003 to 2008, much higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period, showing a huge growth space for China's machine tool industry. From the perspective of the industry life cycle, China's machine tool industry is currently in the growth stage, showing that the industry is growing at a faster rate and its profitability is stabilizing. The domestic market share of domestic machine tools has increased from less than 40% in 2000 to 61% in 2008. However, the situation of most high-end CNC machine tools in China is still not broken. China's domestic CNC machine tools are mostly low value-added. Simple and economical CNC machine tools, imported high-end CNC machine tools with high added value, foreign companies occupy about 85% of China's high-end machine tools market share.
Looking forward to growth in the fourth quarter
Stimulated by the domestic demand policy from January to August, the machine tool industry bottomed out. The monthly production data has narrowed from the lowest point of -34% to -9%, showing a bottoming out trend, in which CNC machine tools perform better than For ordinary machine tools, the output growth rate of CNC machine tools in August was -5%, while all machine tools were -9%. Since China's machine tool exports accounted for a relatively small proportion, the bottoming out of the machine tool industry was mainly affected by the domestic demand policy.
However, from the perspective of profit indicators, from January to August, the total profit of the machine tool industry remained negative year-on-year. Even in August, the negative growth of the index increased, which was in sharp contrast with the production indicators, indicating that the basis for the recovery of the machine tool industry was not stable.
From the main downstream of the machine tool industry, the automotive industry is the main downstream industry of machine tools. In the first three quarters, driven by relevant policies, China's auto industry experienced a blowout market, especially in August, when auto production reached a record high. From the perspective of the machine tool industry and the automotive industry, there was a high agreement between January 2007 and January 2009, but this coincidence relationship deviated after February 2009. According to institutional analysis, this is due to the lag in capacity expansion of the automotive industry, and this divergence cannot be maintained for a long time. In the fourth quarter, as the production of automobiles increases, this divergence will gradually shrink. Due to the low production base of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2008, the machine tool industry is expected to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter.
Judging from the trend of steel prices of major raw materials, China's steel production capacity is currently oversupplied, and the pressure on steel prices in the fourth quarter is relatively small. Therefore, the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter has a large profit margin, which will benefit the profitability of machine tool enterprises.
In the growth period
The global machine tool industry is growing rapidly. From 2005 to 2008, the global machine tool industry grew at a rate of more than 10%, much higher than the growth rate of the global economy during the same period. In 2008, the total output value of the global machine tool industry exceeded $80 billion. From the perspective of production, Japan, Germany, China, and Italy are the major producers of the machine tool industry: accounting for around 65% of the world. From the point of view of consumption, China, Germany, Japan, the United States, Italy, etc., in 2008, China's machine tool consumption reached 19.44 billion US dollars, maintaining the position of the world's first machine tool consumer country for seven consecutive years.
China's machine tool industry has an average annual growth rate of 26% from 2003 to 2008, much higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period, showing a huge growth space for China's machine tool industry. From the perspective of the industry life cycle, China's machine tool industry is currently in the growth stage, showing that the industry is growing at a faster rate and its profitability is stabilizing. The domestic market share of domestic machine tools has increased from less than 40% in 2000 to 61% in 2008. However, the situation of most high-end CNC machine tools in China is still not broken. China's domestic CNC machine tools are mostly low value-added. Simple and economical CNC machine tools, imported high-end CNC machine tools with high added value, foreign companies occupy about 85% of China's high-end machine tools market share.
Looking forward to growth in the fourth quarter
Stimulated by the domestic demand policy from January to August, the machine tool industry bottomed out. The monthly production data has narrowed from the lowest point of -34% to -9%, showing a bottoming out trend, in which CNC machine tools perform better than For ordinary machine tools, the output growth rate of CNC machine tools in August was -5%, while all machine tools were -9%. Since China's machine tool exports accounted for a relatively small proportion, the bottoming out of the machine tool industry was mainly affected by the domestic demand policy.
However, from the perspective of profit indicators, from January to August, the total profit of the machine tool industry remained negative year-on-year. Even in August, the negative growth of the index increased, which was in sharp contrast with the production indicators, indicating that the basis for the recovery of the machine tool industry was not stable.
From the main downstream of the machine tool industry, the automotive industry is the main downstream industry of machine tools. In the first three quarters, driven by relevant policies, China's auto industry experienced a blowout market, especially in August, when auto production reached a record high. From the perspective of the machine tool industry and the automotive industry, there was a high agreement between January 2007 and January 2009, but this coincidence relationship deviated after February 2009. According to institutional analysis, this is due to the lag in capacity expansion of the automotive industry, and this divergence cannot be maintained for a long time. In the fourth quarter, as the production of automobiles increases, this divergence will gradually shrink. Due to the low production base of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2008, the machine tool industry is expected to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter.
Judging from the trend of steel prices of major raw materials, China's steel production capacity is currently oversupplied, and the pressure on steel prices in the fourth quarter is relatively small. Therefore, the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter has a large profit margin, which will benefit the profitability of machine tool enterprises.
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