China's PV overcapacity is still serious

Despite continuous improvements in the external environment for industrial development, the Chinese PV industry remains optimistic about its recovery. However, according to Jin Lingyun, managing partner of Deloitte China's cleantech division, the issue of overcapacity within the entire supply chain—both upstream manufacturing and downstream power station development—remains a significant challenge. Deloitte released its "2013 China Clean Technology Industry Survey Report" on the 5th, highlighting that overcapacity in the PV industry had not been fundamentally resolved. The report noted that by mid-2013, domestic PV capacity reached 40GW, while actual shipments were only 11.5GW, indicating a severe structural overcapacity problem. From the perspective of power station development, current projects benefit from various fiscal and tax incentives, such as electricity price subsidies and reduced value-added taxes, which help maintain an investment return rate above 10%. This has led to a surge in power station construction. According to the report, the total announced and under-development PV projects have reached 130GW—more than three times the target set in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for 2015. This rapid growth raises concerns about potential overcapacity. On August 30, 2013, China announced new on-grid tariffs for large-scale solar power plants and distributed photovoltaic systems. Large-scale plants were divided into three resource zones with electricity prices of 0.99, 0.95, and 1 yuan per kWh, respectively. Distributed PV projects received a subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kWh. Wang Yi, CFO of Yingli Green Energy, noted that the new subsidy levels exceeded expectations, with a 20-year subsidy period offering long-term stability for investors. This policy support has fueled increased interest in solar power plant investments. Solar manufacturing companies are now expanding into downstream power generation, while state-owned energy giants like Guodian Group and SDIC have also entered the solar investment space through partnerships or independent projects. Private enterprises are also actively building solar power stations. For example, Zhenfa New Energy successfully connected a 100MW single-axis tracking photovoltaic system in Gansu. Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) introduced a new tariff policy, applying the district benchmark on-grid tariff to projects filed after September 1. Projects approved before that date must complete construction by the end of 2013 to qualify for better electricity prices. This has created a short-term rush for large-scale PV projects. In the long term, improved external conditions and clearer internal policies are expected to drive another wave of expansion in China’s PV market. As Jin Lingyun stated, the industry is poised for renewed growth.

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