Despite continuous improvements in the external environment for industrial development, the Chinese PV industry remains cautiously optimistic about its recovery. However, according to Jin Lingyun, managing partner of Deloitte China’s cleantech division, overcapacity issues persist throughout the entire supply chain—both upstream manufacturing and downstream power station development. This was highlighted in Deloitte’s “2013 China Clean Technology Industry Survey Report,†released on the 5th, which pointed out that the severe overcapacity problem from previous years had not been fundamentally resolved.
The report revealed that by the first half of 2013, China's domestic PV industry had a production capacity of 40GW, but actual shipments only reached 11.5GW, showing a clear structural imbalance. On the downstream side, the development of solar power stations has benefited from various fiscal and tax incentives, including electricity price subsidies and reduced VAT, leading to an investment return rate above 10%. As a result, the sector is experiencing rapid growth, with announced projects totaling 130GW—more than three times the target set in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for 2015. This raises concerns about potential overcapacity.
On August 30, 2013, China introduced new on-grid tariffs for large-scale solar power plants and distributed PV systems. Large-scale plants were divided into three zones with tariffs of 0.99, 0.95, and 1 yuan per kWh, while distributed PV projects received a subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kWh. Wang Yi, CFO of Yingli Green Energy, noted that these subsidies exceeded initial expectations and provided a 20-year subsidy period, offering long-term stability and confidence for investors.
With policy support, the solar power plant investment landscape is heating up. PV manufacturers are moving downstream to invest in power station construction, while state-owned energy companies like Guodian Group and SDIC have also entered the market through partnerships or independent projects. In addition to rising project numbers, installed capacity is increasing rapidly. For example, the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province plans to install 1GW, and the Inner Mongolia Daqi trough project aims for 550MW. Private companies are also actively expanding, such as Zhenfa New Energy, which successfully connected a 100W photovoltaic unit in Gansu.
Moreover, the NDRC’s new subsidy tariff method, effective September 1, affects projects filed before and after that date. Projects operating after January 1, 2014, must be completed by year-end to qualify for favorable tariffs, which may lead to a short-term rush in large-scale PV installations. In the long run, improved external conditions and clearer internal policies will drive further expansion in China’s PV application market, as noted by Jin Lingyun.
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