On October 29, due to the central bank’s announced interest rate hikes, the domestic futures market opened with a fierce response. Shanghai Aluminum’s contracts broke their ground. However, due to London’s relatively strong overnight performance, Shanghai’s domestic copper stocks are also in short supply. After the rebound, Shanghai Aluminum suffered from this, and the short positions were relatively positive, with some losses recovered in the late session, but the key price level after the breakthrough of 16,000 also put pressure on prices. In the next trade in the London Metal Field, boosted by technical buying and short covering, three-month aluminum rose 56 US dollars to 1,817 US dollars per ton, which is also the highest level in two and a half months. Before this Thursday, LME aluminum closed at 1763.5 US dollars. After China unexpectedly raised interest rates, the market fell sharply. Later deals may expect that China's interest rate hike will have limited impact on metals and will recover most of the decline. In this context, Shanghai aluminum market evolution how to evolve it? Last week, international and domestic financial commodity futures can be described as changing. The more significant event was the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates by 27 basis points. Second, the US dollar index fell, closing at 84.91 on Friday, this week's low of 84.73, close to the February 18 low of 84.56, before the United States presidential election and announced the October non-farm employment report, the overall positive The U.S. economic data failed to stimulate large purchases of the U.S. dollar. World-wide attention has also taken place in major changes in crude oil. NYMEX December crude oil futures fell for a total of 4.25 U.S. dollars on Wednesday and Thursday, as traders profited from Monday’s record high of 55.67. The domestic aluminum industry is also very lively recently. Chinalco announced on October 26 that it will increase the contract price of 2004 by 7% from 4,130 yuan per ton to 4,430 yuan to reflect the increase in the price of imported alumina. This is also a three-time increase in the price of alumina from China Aluminum since September 17, with a cumulative increase of 18%. In the short term, the domestic fundamentals are more likely to coexist, and bears are greater than profits. In the medium and long term, the state of profitability in this industry cannot be sustained, and the gradual fall in prices is an inevitable trend. Since last week's international and domestic fundamentals and related stocks were in turmoil, the situation was changing, and at the same time there were still unexpected or more violent turbulences and transitions in the short-term. Therefore, at the same time as the analysis and prediction of Shanghai Alcoa's market, it must first be relevant. Variety makes a forward-looking forecast. This expectation is currently based on a purely technical perspective, and major changes in the fundamentals will verify or reverse the expectations. The author tends to peak in crude oil. After London Aluminum suffered the crash on October 13, 2004, the technical summit has been very clear. Since there has been a rebound of more than the falling 0.618 at 1807, it is expected that there will be a sell-off in 1846. Shanghai Aluminum is weaker than London Aluminum in terms of technical trends. This week, it is strictly speaking technically broken. However, due to the strong rebound in Shanghai copper spot and the sharp rebound of London intraday trading on Friday, Shanghai Aluminum will passively participate in the rebound in the short term. Upward resistance position 16200,16500, rebound limit in the center of the platform before the National Day 16900. As Shanghai Aluminum itself lacks funds to pursue in domestic futures trading, coupled with the expectation that the domestic fundamentals are bearish, Shanghai Aluminum has been relatively weak. In the process of future rebound, Shanghai Aluminum will still be weaker than the relevant metal species, and once the rebound is over, Shanghai Aluminum will enter the long-term bearish path ahead of other varieties.
