Judging from the investigations conducted by China Securities Journal, in the process of this round of A-shares, the positions of public funds and private equity funds have improved, but the extent is not obvious, which means that the funds are still relatively adequate. Ammunition" reserve. In addition, foreign capital, insurance, pensions, etc. are also sources of incremental funding.
Speed ​​up the admission of funds
On February 26, the turnover of the two cities reached 1,097.7 billion yuan, breaking the trillion-dollar mark for two consecutive days, and the speed of funds entering the market accelerated.
"From the situation we have observed, the pace of retail participation is faster than that of institutions." A brokerage official said that after two consecutive days of transactions broke through one trillion yuan, retail investors may be even more aggressive.
“The market is rising faster. We are trying to figure out the mechanism behind it.†A macro research director of a private equity fund said that it is not excluded that a large number of retail investors enter the premises.
According to data released by China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. on the 26th, the number of new investors in the securities market last week was 316,100, which was significantly higher than the previous week's increase of 208,600. It is worth noting that the current level is still low compared to the number of new investors who are close to or even more than one million per week near the bull market high in 2015.
In addition, after the net outflow of the North Bank on the 25th, the net inflow status was resumed on the 26th. According to the latest data, the net purchases of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds on the 26th were 785 million yuan and 1.208 billion yuan respectively.
"A-shares have already accumulated a certain amount of new funds in the current round of growth, but it is still too early to increase the large-scale incremental capital inflows." Liang Hui, general manager of Xiangju Capital, analyzed that the balance of the two financial reserves has rebounded recently, but its recovery rate is slow. In the index increase. Moreover, the recovery of financing purchases is faster than the financing balance, indicating that ultra-short-term trading leverage funds have increased, but the medium and long-term leverage funds are few.
As of the 25th, the balance of the two financial institutions was 784.062 billion yuan, a certain rebound from the 715.895 billion yuan on the 11th.
The fund has not yet been large-scale
What is the organization's movement? As a more flexible organization in the A-share market, private placements increase and decrease positions have certain reference. A survey conducted by China Securities Journal found that some private placements decisively increased their positions in the process of sharply rising A-shares, earning a lot of money, but most private placements are still in a state of active defense, with neutral positions facing market fluctuations.
“Our strategy is to actively defend.†A medium-sized private equity partner in Shanghai said in an interview with China Securities Journal that the so-called active defense, on the one hand, can not be passively dealt with when facing the A-share bull market, otherwise it will have to swallow On the other hand, although the current stocks with the highest gains are lower in valuation, the ROE is not high, and the rise is questionable. In this case, they chose to control the position at around 50%. In the future, it will increase the position and tend to defensive varieties, such as liquor, medicine and other sectors.
Another private equity partner with a management scale of more than 10 billion yuan told reporters that the current position is close to 50%, which is a "passive jiacang". "Think of the logic and context, but did not expect the rhythm so fierce." The private equity partner believes that if the real economy can with the rise of the situation, there will be opportunities to get on the train after the recent adjustment.
In fact, the private placement of the wave of the market is not a minority. A private fund manager in Beijing who had an early short position told the China Securities Journal that they only "drink a little soup" at the beginning of the market. According to past experience, the bull market's initial stage of gains is generally not so rapid, so it is judged that there is still the possibility of a callback. "But watching other private equity nets soar, the pressure is very high," he said.
Compared with private placements, public funds have a certain reference for their position calculation data due to the daily net value. Recently, public offerings have been added, but the magnitude is not large. It is not the main incremental fund in this round of market. According to estimates, as of the 25th, the proportion of equity investment in open-end funds was 52.03%, a slight increase from 49.79% at the beginning of 2019. A fund researcher analyzed that many hybrid funds had a heavier bond position and failed to turn in time to catch up with this rapid rise.
New funding is worth looking forward to
Looking into the future, institutional sources believe that medium and long-term funds are worth looking forward to.
First, the continuous flow of overseas funds. Du Bin, chief economist of Hongyi Yuanfang Fund, said that on the 28th, MSCI will announce its consultation results on improving the A-share factor. If the smooth expansion will continue to bring in the flow of overseas passive investment funds. Long-term, institutionalized funds entering the market are expected to become the cornerstone of the market. Liu Guangwei, director of investment in the New Era Institute, said that this year the regulatory authorities have increased the QFII investment quota, with a total amount of 300 billion US dollars. According to the current exchange rate, the incremental funds are expected to reach one trillion yuan. From the perspective of QFII positions, there is still much room for the future. Another agency predicts that the foreign capital inflow in 2019 will reach 600 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan.
Second, insurance funds are expected to increase the proportion of investment in A shares. This year, the regulatory authorities introduced a policy to encourage insurance to increase investment in equity. As an important institutional investor in the A-share market, the willingness to enter the market is even stronger.
Once again, public and private funds hold "ammunition" and wait for opportunities to increase their positions. Combined with research and statistics, the current positions of public funds and private equity funds are not high. In particular, most private equity positions are still near or below 50%, and future positions are expected to increase further.
Finally, there is a large amount of funds for the pension to enter the market. Some fund people expect that the new scale of enterprise annuity may be on the level of 100 billion yuan this year. At the same time, the work of “progress†in the occupational annuity has accelerated recently. It is estimated that the scale of occupational annuity is about 700 billion yuan, and the incremental scale may be 150 billion yuan per year. Around the yuan, some of the funds are expected to enter the A-share market.
Looking forward to the market, Liang Hui said that since 2019, the market has rebounded rapidly. In the future, the market will enter a stage of individual stock differentiation. The investment focus is on selecting a large industry space, low correlation with the economic cycle, strong core competitiveness of the company, and stable performance growth. High-quality companies with lower valuations, gaining alpha revenue beyond the market.
Yang Ling, CEO of Starstone Investment, believes that the four main lines of configuration in the future are worthy of attention: first, advanced manufacturing with global competitive advantages, second, intelligent manufacturing that benefits from the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing, and third, industries with both consumer and technological attributes. Fourth, other weak-cycle growth stocks.
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