May 20:
The Zhengzhou Methanol ME1409 contract closed higher on May 19, reaching a high of 2,622 yuan/ton and a low of 2,584 yuan/ton. It finally settled at 2,619 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 0.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume dropped by 706 contracts, with a total of 59,344 hands traded.
News highlights include:
1. Hebei Zhongxin's glacial acetic acid plant is set to restart on May 20 as planned, currently holding no inventory.
2. From January to April 2014, methanol production totaled 11.0157 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.31%.
On the spot market, the Jiangsu port methanol market remained weak. Taicang import supply was priced between 2,680–2,700 yuan/ton, while domestic supply ranged around 2,670–2,680 yuan/ton. Local sources in Jiangyin and Changzhou were also priced at 2,670–2,680 yuan/ton. In the Nantong area, offers were slightly higher at 2,780–2,800 yuan/ton. Low-cost shipping options were reluctant to move, and morning trading activity was sluggish, with most transactions focused on lower-end deals. Short-term trading volumes remained light.
Market analysis shows that in April 2014, methanol production reached 2.9899 million tons, up 23.93% year-on-year. Cumulative production for the first four months of 2014 hit 11.0157 million tons, a rise of 19.31% compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending May 9, East China port inventories stood at 190,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous week.
With several methanol plants undergoing early shutdowns and maintenance in May, the oversupply issue persisted, leading to only a slow decline in inventory levels. Meanwhile, demand for acetic acid, methyl ether, and MTBE showed some recovery, pushing overall operating rates slightly higher. However, this did not significantly alter the underlying weakness in the methanol market.
Technically, the ME1409 contract continued to show upward movement but faced resistance near the 2,636 level. Traders are advised to monitor the 2,636 level closely, with a stop-loss placed just below it to manage risk effectively.
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