In 2013, the steel market was influenced by a mix of domestic and global economic factors. The Chinese economy showed signs of recovery, with GDP growth reaching 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012, while retail sales of consumer goods rose by 13.5%. However, the international environment remained uncertain, with issues like the U.S. budget stalemate, the European debt crisis, and global currency tensions creating challenges for worldwide economic growth. The World Bank lowered its forecast to just 2.3%, signaling ongoing uncertainty.
Domestic investment in fixed assets declined slightly, with a nominal growth of 20.6% in 2012, down from previous years. Real estate investment also slowed, growing by 16.2%, but still showing some resilience. Meanwhile, industrial activity continued to expand, with the PMI remaining at 50.6% and the value added by large-scale industries increasing by 10.3%. Auto production and sales both grew year-on-year, surpassing 19 million units, indicating strong demand in the sector.
Raw material prices saw an initial rise due to supply-side pressures and speculative trading, especially in iron ore. Prices hit a 14-month high in January, with the Platts 62% iron ore index reaching $159 per tonne. Although prices later stabilized, they remained elevated, supported by sustained demand and limited supply adjustments. Coke prices also increased slightly, with some regions reporting higher costs due to supply disruptions.
Steel output in December showed a slight decline compared to the previous month, but overall annual production remained robust. Despite this, the high cost of raw materials and seasonal demand fluctuations limited the release of production capacity. Inventory levels across major markets rose steadily, driven by lower temperatures and snowfall that affected construction activity. Steel stocks, particularly for rebar and wire products, increased significantly as dealers stocked up at lower prices.
Leading steel companies, including Baosteel, Wuhan Iron & Steel, and Shougang, raised their prices in early 2013, aiming to offset rising costs and secure profits. These price increases were intended to support market stability and reflect the underlying strength of the industry. With inventory expected to continue rising after the Spring Festival, the steel market remained in a state of cautious optimism, balancing supply, demand, and pricing pressures.
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