Prediction and analysis China prebaked anode Market in 2013 December and 2014 trends

This month, silicon metal market prices are slightly down phenomenon on the whole, in the range of 50 yuan / tons. The reason comes down loose for the cost,but also can not be extruded downstream market cachexia. Months of petroleum coke prices fall all over the area, although the raw material procurement costs,but also to the late pre baked anode price negotiations more difficult. The downstream aluminum market week record low, aluminum prices fell to 14020 yuan / ton, the formation of the heavy losses to the electrolytic aluminum market.It is understood the aluminum back more and more not timely, procrastinationphenomenon is more serious, and the other part of the cash settlement ofaluminum prices have now settled by phenomenon, visible aluminum enterprisesfunds greater pressure, northwest area although the cost of production is low,but the majority of funds for construction, the same strain. It is understood the Xinjiang area is pre baked anode inventory amount is larger, some enterpriseshave few months to amount has not yet digested, this also is a blow for the anodesupply market, hand down on the other hand, the backlog of funds. In generalthough electrolytic aluminum market operating rate did not decline, but for pre baked anode corporate sales still crisis. But the cost side support andinsufficient, the late pre baked anode price or will still have a small cutphenomenon. Is expected in January pre baked anode mainstream markettransactions: low prices in the 3000-3300 yuan / ton, the high-end prices in the 3300-3700 yuan / ton, northwest area due to the higher freight rates, traffic inconvenience, prices in the 3700-3900 yuan / ton. The raw material market in December Sinopec continue hanging opening sales model, in order to alleviate the pressure on the stock at the same time, the purpose of the insured. December 20th from the implementation of openingprice, no sale mode of execution. Sulfur in petroleum coke price in 70-130 yuan / ton, high sulfur petroleum coke price in 20-120 yuan / ton. For pre baked anodeenterprises is a heavy blow, although a substantial discount the price of raw materials, provides the advantage for the end of the purchasing of raw materials,but the cost of the loose again to the downstream market downturn in demandreason, will drag the anode prices go down. The other months attention to high sulfur petroleum coke import tariffs have long had a result, accurate description is "high up, gently down". The market of coal tar pitch changed little overall,supply at the end of the Shandong Hebei area reduced, the business mentality is strong, push up higher amplitude. But the slight adjustment for pre baked anodecost wouldn't make much impact. Downstream market will also look on the sharp decline in prices of petroleum coke, efforts will not be weakened. The downstream aluminum market lack of favorable factors, the price of aluminum in aluminum prices dropping, weak, have high power costs ofSouthwest Aluminum, but because of the national policy and resolve the excess capacity is difficult to obtain the local government subsidies, some business difficulties funds of enterprises have to choose to stop production. Since earlySichuan sub production, Guizhou, Sichuan and a few select stop part of the capacity of aluminum reduction, including Xinjiang, the northwest new capacity,but also because of the aluminum price weakness and shortage of funds andslow operation speed. Months, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information issued the "notice" on theelectrolytic aluminum enterprises stepped tariff policy of electricity, since the decision on January 1, 2014 to the electrolytic aluminum enterprises to use electricity ladder electricity price policy. Notice clear, according to the electrolytic aluminum enterprise year of electricity price to determine the actual level, sub file. Development and Reform Commission aims to implement the resolve thestatus of aluminium industry serious excess capacity, increase the production cost of the aluminum industry, to suppress the enthusiasm of enterprises andproduction of aluminum. As one of the production of prebaked anode aluminum prices of raw materials will also be a greater negative impact, the industry more wait-and-see attitude. Prebaked anode production market still greater pressure. According to Wikipedia information to incomplete statistics, in 2013 December output China non aluminum supporting pre baked anode is 609000 tons,compared to last month, an increase of 3.05%, changed little overall. This month the prebaked anode production increase is mainly a new and maintenanceenterprise normal production, which Baoding Tianhua industry and trade limited company has been suspended for one year, in the month started production,Gongyi Yinshan metallurgy material limited company new project months began to product. On the whole the production is stable, the more serious problem is money. Near the end of the year, the pressure on enterprise funds moreincrease, while the downstream market is still a lack of good power, at the end of the pre baked anode enterprises or reduction may. Baichuan prediction: Recently, Chinese "money" once again stage a comeback.At the end of this month China interbank rates again this year a new high since June. Although the central bank again to restart the reverse repurchase ease liquidity thirst, but interbank rates are still high, "Qian Huang" sparked worries of the market. Raw petroleum coke prices after several hanging openingconcessions will be stable for a period of time, but early loosening or drag onanode later price trend. Although aluminum price downturn will cause the enterprise production slowdown, however due to the capacity of the newproduction started running, primary aluminum supply pressure reduction is still.The effect of financial pressure and seasonal slowdown in demand, the aluminum price is weak. That is to say whether it is from the macro side or from the upstream and downstream market point of view, the market is the lack of benefitof prebaked anode support, does not exclude the part of region next month there are still 50 yuan / ton down slightly.