In 2040, 75% of cars are "driving without a driver"? 【full text】

It is reported that China’s self-developed driverless car will be tested from Beijing to Tianjin next year, and will be tested from Beijing to Shenzhen in 2015. Driverless cars may set off another wheel revolution. A report from the KPMG and Michigan Automotive Research Center concluded that the revolution will "get faster than you think."

In China, the Hongqi HQ3 driverless car developed by the National University of Defense Technology has successfully traveled from Changsha to Wuhan. In a three-hour, 22-minute journey, it successfully overtakes 116 vehicles. In foreign countries, General Motors, Volkswagen, Volvo, and the new media giant Google Inc., the leading companies in the automotive industry, have invested heavily in driverless cars, and new unmanned vehicles continue to emerge, demonstrating excellent market prospects. .

Driverless cars do not require steering wheels, foot pedals, and other manual devices, and there is almost no collision (most traffic accidents are human-made), and the body will be lighter. As the technology continues to mature, driverless cars are ready to go to market. According to GM's plan, the brand's self-driving car will be officially launched in 2018, and Volvo plans to launch its own mature product by 2020. Google estimates that driverless cars will need to be commercialized as soon as 2018.

Recently, California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill allowing unmanned cars to be tested on the road. California is the third place in the United States to allow unmanned cars to be legally on the road. The large and powerful companies have now accelerated the pace of R&D for driverless cars. Companies such as General Motors, Volkswagen, Volvo, and the new media giant Google have all made heavy investments in the field of driverless cars. The market is very attractive.

Although it is still a long time for driverless cars to face technical and legal obstacles on a large scale in urban roads, the constant emergence of new technologies does make reality far from science fiction. The American Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) even boldly predicted in a report that by 2040, 75% of the world’s total car will be unmanned.

U.S. allows driverless cars to go on the road

In November 2009, a video on a foreign social networking site drew widespread attention. When the video's uploader, Ben Zeitlin, was driving on Highway 280 between San Francisco and Palo Alto in the United States, he discovered that there was a "bizarre" Toyota Prius saloon next to it. Flow device, Zeitlin initially thought it was used to test the wind speed, in fact, this is Google's R & D driverless car system. At the time, this was a secret project in progress.

Google co-founder Sergey Brin said that driverless cars can make roads safer, allowing office workers to free themselves from the boredom of driving and ease congestion. At the same time, people who can't drive, including the blind and the disabled, are expected to drive their dreams with driverless driving. Barrett Howard, a 33-year-old technician, believes that the use of smart phones has become a trend, and many drivers may be more distracted while driving. Driverless technology is expected to solve this inconvenience. "We don't have to worry about texting or distracting people when driving. The computer will take over the car and make our life easier."

It is reported that this bill just signed regulates the safety standards and performance standards for driving unmanned cars on roads in California. The most basic rule is that when a driverless car is driving on a public road, it must be Drivers with a driver's license ride in order to take over when problems arise in the car's driverless system.

In June 2011, the Nevada Legislative Council passed the first U.S. law allowing the testing of driverless cars, and the law took effect on March 1 this year. Since then, Florida has also passed a similar bill. At the same time, Arizona, Hawaii, and Homer, Ohio are also considering implementing the same bill.

Corporate giants invest heavily in R&D

A driverless car is a car that can travel autonomously with little human intervention. This concept first appeared in the “big challenge” research project of the US Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Since the birth of the car, driverlessness is the dream of many people. As early as 1939 at the New York World Expo, General Motors displayed an electric driverless car in the "Spectacle of the Future" pavilion. It was powered by a closed circuit mounted on the road and could be controlled by radio. It seems that although the technology is nothing new, it is after all a demonstration of the concept of driverlessness.

With the development of technology, the driving range of the driverless car continues to increase, the proportion of manual intervention gradually decreases, and the maximum speed has also been improved. In 1995, Dickmans' Mercedes-Benz Mercedes-Benz driverless car traveled between Munich and Copenhagen. The mileage reached 1600 kilometers. The maximum speed was over 175 kilometers. The rate of manual intervention was 5%. The same year, Carnegie Mellon University Navlab. The project has extended the unmanned pilot range to 5,000 kilometers, and the proportion of manual intervention has dropped to 1.8%. Unfortunately, the brakes on this car are all manually controlled. Alberto Brocchi, a professor at the University of Parma in Italy, used two low-cost black-and-white cameras to drive the car's unmanned vehicle in 1996. He used stereo imaging technology to allow the car to clearly perceive the surrounding environment.

Since 2004, the United States and European countries have promoted the development of this technology in the form of holding a driverless car race. Recently, the MIG driverless car of the German Free University, the driverless car of the University of Palma in Italy, and the driverless car of the Google Company in the United States all began to test on the road. Google is not the only company that develops driverless cars. In fact, almost every traditional car manufacturer is developing its own model of driverless cars, making the emergence of new R&D laboratories everywhere in Silicon Valley dedicated to this challenge. At present, GM, Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Volvo and other manufacturers are testing their own driverless cars.

As technology continues to mature, driverless cars are ready to go to market. According to GM's plan, the brand's self-driving car will be officially launched in 2018, and Volvo plans to launch its own mature product by 2020. Google’s co-founder Brin also said: “The number of driverless cars that have become widely popular has been numbered for a few years.” He also said that Google’s driverless cars will be promoted within five years.

In 2040, 75% of cars are "driving without a driver"?

Driverless cars have many advantages. According to statistics, about 1.2 million people are killed in human-induced traffic accidents each year in the world, and most of them are caused by fatigue and lack of attention. Driverless cars can effectively prevent drivers from accidents caused by abnormal behavior. In addition, the responsiveness of driverless cars is also much better than that of human drivers. When an emergency needs to be braked, the machine's response speed can reach 40 milliseconds, and humans need 500 milliseconds at the fastest. In the future, the researchers will also try to make the driverless vehicle capable of "prevention" and identify "dangerous signs." These "dangerous signs" include strong sunlight reflections on the road surface, falling objects on the truck that can cause the sensor to malfunction, or just car punctures.

At the same time as the security is improved, driverless cars can also help alleviate traffic congestion and realize intelligent transportation. According to a report recently published by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), driverless cars are more secure and efficient through sophisticated communications sensors. Driverless cars have their own way, which not only helps reduce traffic congestion, but also increases traffic efficiency. Once all vehicles are unmanned, the vehicle can ensure normal driving through data communications, which means traffic lights and parking indicators are no longer necessary.

Between driverless cars, there will also be "exchanges" between cars and cars as in "The Cars". According to IEEE, in the future, programs will be shared among driverless vehicles. A simple and conceivable scenario is when a driverless car comes in, picks you up, takes you to your destination, and then picks up a user. Alberto Brocchi said: "Now some private cars are easy to be idle, and driverless cars can guarantee continued driving, operate more efficiently and save fuel."

With the advancement of technology, the advent of the age of driverless cars is no longer a dream. It is getting closer and closer to people. The report released by the IEEE even predicted that, as the most promising form of intelligent transportation in the future, by 2040, 75% of the total global autos will be unmanned cars.

Car function "fool" is a trend

What is the true idea of ​​technology? Whether it is Apple or Google’s leading philosophy, the most direct thing that can be offered to the public is to enjoy the most fashionable life in the simplest way. The use of the slogan "Technology makes life better" is actually such a meaning.

So, how many years ago we didn't have automatic transmissions, we only had to manually shift gears. Now when we have automatic files, we need more functions to achieve synchronization. No matter what kind of vehicles are currently under development, people’s desires will never end and they will go on. The car is like that. A car was very good a few years ago. Now we don't just have to have a car. It's that this car can bring us a very wide range of functions and a more comfortable driving experience. A new sense of science and technology to stimulate our nerves from time to time, the author more respected Apple's products, in fact the author's Apple phone does not install any game, bring it is to bring their own inspiration from time to time in the scientific life , from Nokia to Apple, and then from the ordinary car to the future of possible new energy these contrasts I personally can play some more effect and role.

The current major definition of many unmanned vehicles is as follows: In the absence of human control factors, the vehicle itself completes observation and driving under complex traffic conditions. Scientists recently announced this computer-controlled smart vehicle technology. In the German capital of Berlin, this driverless smart company developed by the German Free University was allowed to go on the road. In a very responsible system, the car observes traffic conditions by itself according to a set procedure, and then analyzes and completes its own accurate driving behavior in accordance with local traffic regulations. The research team members said that this smart car can correctly identify the roads, pedestrians, buildings and trees around it when it reaches a maximum speed of 70 yards. Not only that, it can also recognize the traffic lights and the sudden traffic conditions around them. influences. This technology is in fact an extension of the automatic control technology on the aircraft to ground vehicles. This extension can bring more and more complete experiences. The future is a very promising direction.

Although the outlook is optimistic, the limitations still exist

Despite its many advantages, driverless cars still have some limitations.

Technically, driverless cars are hard to call perfection. “Driverless cars are technically still not stable enough.” The example of Brogi’s discrimination technique shows that driverless cars cannot distinguish cars and other moving objects. Such moving objects may be pedestrians or a ball. . In addition, the cost for automotive manufacturers is also a headache. Industry sources said that even though Google’s driverless car project has made considerable progress, its cost of more than US$300,000 (about 1.9 million yuan) is even higher than that of a Ferrari, making it prohibitive.

Because it is driverless, in the event of an accident, manufacturers inevitably have to take responsibility. This risk may be unwilling or difficult for manufacturers to afford. Cars are controlled by computers. Should accidents occur, should the "driver" or the software developer be responsible? Computer security issues are also a major concern. The operation of driverless cars is based on a high degree of dependence on the computer system. Once the onboard computer system is invaded by viruses or remotely controlled, the consequences are unthinkable, ranging from traffic accidents to car crashes. The weight of the vehicle system is the entire transportation system. Social chaos.

The biggest obstacle to the large-scale application of driverless cars may be the degree of acceptance of the general public. "I don't believe that machines are more useful than the human brain. An expensive GPS navigation machine sometimes brings the car to the river. The intelligent system of the driverless car can completely avoid this situation?" Has a BMW And Jack Waldorf, who has not forgotten to take the map.

"People still have doubts about driverless technology. They don't want to hand over all their machines to the machine," said Jeffrey Miller, associate professor of computer systems engineering at the University of Alaska. However, he is optimistic about the prospects of driverless cars. “The time for driverless cars to get on the road is getting closer and closer. At present, automakers have begun to incorporate some of the automation capabilities into existing vehicles to help people gradually Accept driverless technology."

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